Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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922 FXUS64 KEWX 112340 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 640 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 137 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Latest regional radar imagery shows a line of storms developing along an outflow boundary extending southward from the tail end of a morning complex of storms. The Hill Country and Southern Edwards Plateau will be first in line for some strong to severe storms, with SPC painting a Level 1-2 out of 5 risk for the entire CWA this afternoon and evening. Damaging wind looks to be the primary hazard with some large hail also possible given the instability present. However, with a rather warm and moist atmospheric profile, the concern for hail is a bit lower than recent events. A 500mb shortwave at the base of a passing upper level low to our north will be the primary forcing mechanism along with the rich boundary layer moisture and elevated instability. Expect storms to push through from northwest to southeast and perhaps even turn more southerly than usual as the shortwave disturbance swings through our region. Yet another weak shortwave may push through from north to south on Wednesday on the back side of the departing upper low, which may support additional showers and storms, but at this time, severe weather does not look to be a threat for our region. Temperatures are expected to remain near the status quo, if not slightly cooler outside of the Rio Grande Plains. Highs should top out in the upper 80s to mid 90s for most, with lower 100s along the Rio Grande. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 137 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 The subtropical ridge will build back across TX Thursday. Dry weather will return, and a warming trend will begin. Models continue to show temperatures a little cooler over the latter part of the week. Highs will mostly be in the 90s with triple digits confined to the Rio Grande region and southern I-35 Corridor. Afternoon dewpoint temperatures will remain mainly steady in the upper 60s to lower 70s through the weekend keeping heat indices below advisory criteria. Monday a midlevel trough will approach the TX coast from the Gulf and could produce some showers and thunderstorms over the Coastal Plains Monday and Tuesday afternoons. There will also be increase in dewpoint temperatures raising heat index values. We could see heat advisory levels across the Coastal Plains and southern I-35 Corridor Tuesday afternoon. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 640 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 The initial line of scattered thunderstorms have passed I-35 sites with possible VCTS at DRT for the next hour. Will need to keep an eye on SAT/SSF in the next few hours as a storm in the western Hill Country may move towards terminals, but most models weaken this feature before arriving. Mainly VFR conditions are expected, although patchy MVFR ceilings or visibility may occur near sunrise at sites tomorrow. Winds are primarily easterly and light through the period. Isolated showers and thunderstorms may develop as early as tomorrow morning, but confidence in locations is too low to add anything more than PROB30 groups at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 74 91 74 95 / 40 30 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 73 91 73 93 / 40 20 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 73 93 74 96 / 30 20 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 71 87 73 92 / 40 30 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 79 101 81 103 / 20 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 72 88 72 92 / 30 30 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 73 93 74 97 / 30 10 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 72 90 73 94 / 40 20 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 74 89 74 93 / 30 30 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 75 92 76 96 / 40 20 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 76 93 77 97 / 40 20 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...MMM Long-Term...05 Aviation...27