788
FXUS64 KEWX 241715
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1215 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

A few light showers are noted early this morning over the coastal
plains to just east of the Interstate 35 corridor. These showers are
developing south of a stationary front where the southerly flow in
the low-levels is fairly weak. Southerly flow should decrease as the
early morning hours progress, which should result in a decrease in
activity toward sunrise. Rain chances through the morning hours will
also remain in the forecast generally along and north of the
stationary front over portions of the Hill Country and nearby I-35
corridor. Some upper lift is currently moving in from the west, with
some new convection noted over portions of west central Texas. We
will keep rain chances low (generally 20%) this morning, but should
see an uptick in the coverage of showers and storms during the
afternoon and evening hours as daytime heating aids in the
development of convection. For now, we will keep rain chances in the
20-40% range, but this may need to be boosted slightly pending
convective trends to our northwest. A few of the hi-res models show
some potential for stronger storms to develop across portions of the
Hill Country. While shear will not be overly favorable this far
south, sufficient heating should yield decent CAPE values. This along
with some lift along the remnant frontal boundary and mid-level
disturbances in the southern edge of an upper trough could yield a
setup favorable for a strong storm or two. High temperatures today
will be coolest north of the front, which should keep highs in the
upper 80s across the southern Edwards Plateau into the Hill Country.
Elsewhere, highs will remain above normal, with lower to mid 90s in
the forecast.

Rain chances continue this evening as the above mentioned trough
axis moves through the region. We should see a decrease in activity
from north to south tonight as the trough axis begins to shift to
our east. On Wednesday, northwest flow aloft on the backside of an
upper trough along with a cold front will keep rain chances in the
forecast for most of south central Texas. The exception will be out
west across the southern Edwards Plateau into portions of the Rio
Grande plains. High temperatures will trend downward for a good
portion of the area on Wednesday. However, with the front moving in
late in the day for areas generally along and south of a Del Rio to
San Antonio to Karnes City line, expect another round of highs in
the lower to mid 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Wednesday night returns pleasant evening weather to the area as the
drier air and north breeze will make the air through Thursday night
more seasonal for late September. High pressure still looms large
over West TX up into the central Rockies, and a weakening northerly
flow over Central TX allows for warmer daytime temperatures for
Friday through the weekend. The broader meridional pattern aloft all
but prevents a return of south winds through Monday, so the
relatively milder overnight temperatures will stick around for a
while. Unfortunately the dry pattern with a dominant ridge to the
west looks to hold us into drought for much of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

VFR flight conditions will primarily prevail throughout the TAF
period. However, later this afternoon through the evening, isolated
to scattered convection will develop across central and eastern areas
of South-Central Texas. Added VCTS at KAUS and KSAT for this chance
and VCSH at KSSF. Any heavier cells may result in gusty winds and
temporary restriction in flight categories. Any activity should
dissipate towards and after the midnight hour. Winds today remain
light and could be variable/shifty at times. A reinforcing cold
front arrives Wednesday morning and this will push any rain/storm
chances into Sunday southward towards the Corpus Christi CWA. North
winds become a bit breezy behind the front through Wednesday
afternoon at the 30 hour TAF sites (KAUS and KSAT) with winds into
the 12 to 15 knot range with higher gusts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              73  89  66  88 /  30  10   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  71  90  64  88 /  30  10   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     72  93  65  91 /  30  10   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            70  84  62  86 /  20  10   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           76  96  67  92 /  10  10   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        71  86  63  86 /  20  10   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             72  94  64  90 /  20  10   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        71  91  64  89 /  30  10   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   72  89  66  88 /  30  20   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       74  93  67  89 /  20  10   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           74  95  69  91 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...Platt
Long-Term...18
Aviation...Brady