738
FXUS64 KEWX 261145
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
645 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Today and Monday will be the hottest two days of the spring season,
and we`d like to think summer season as well. The eastward shift of
the base of the Central Plains upper trough will pull the dry higher
terrain air east into the rest of South Central Texas, leading to
the peak period of this early season Heatwave. The hottest ambient
air temperatures seen in any May at DRT will reach heat advisory
criteria based on temperature, while in areas to the south and east,
the heat index values getting into the 113 to 115 degree range have
much of the I-35 Corridor and Coastal Prairies in an Excessive Heat
Warning. A similar day is projected for Monday for most areas, so
we`ll opt to extend this hazard to carry over into Monday. Tonight`s
minimum temperatures are again going to be very warm with more
highest minimum temperature records likely to fall.

At the end of this heatwave nightmare, there could be a few areas
destabilizing as a mid-level moisture fetch from the Pacific crosses
through Mexico. This could set up an inverted-V sounding look for
00Z Tuesday. As a result we`ve opted for an isolated mention of
thunderstorms for parts of the forecast area as a precursor for
slightly better rain chances to develop after 00Z. We could be
entering that transition period where the potential for hail is
reduced, but there should be enough heat out there to make any storm
that develops a risk for producing strong wind gusts.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

A slight pattern change during the long-term portion of the forecast
could lead to prolonged low chances of showers and storms during the
extended period. The center of the upper ridge will be well south of
our area and several weak disturbances will allow for at least a
slight chance to chance of showers and storms mainly during the
afternoon and evening periods beginning Monday and in place each day
through the upcoming work-week. It is much too difficult to really
pin down locations, amounts of rainfall, and impacts as what occurs
each day will likely be impacted by what happened during the prior
day. Some periods of locally heavy rainfall can`t be ruled out for
certain periods as PWAT values approach 2 inches at times. In
addition, higher CAPE values will also lead to possible strong storm
activity each day. With the increased rain chances and moisture,
high temperatures will be lower once again ranging from near 90 in
the northeast to near 100 along the Rio Grande. This will negate any
need for heat products next week. Overall, next week will be a tough
forecast as many want beneficial rainfall, but amounts and locations
will be highly uncertain day-to-day. While most locations have 20-30
PoPs each day next week, there will be some who unfortunately most
likely not see any rain at all next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Outflow for Central TX storms to the north could keep an extra layer
of clouds over AUS in the first few hours, but the outflow wind
reports to the north look too weak to make a wind shift that far
south. Lighter winds overnight has led to a few IFR cigs, and this
light wind pattern is expected again tonight. Thus will have a
prevailing MVFR cig to cover the low stratus with about a 2-3 hour
period of IFR at or just before daybreak. Mixing with this shallow
layer of moisture should be quick so will show improvements in the
late morning hours to be 15Z or 16Z each day.

&&

.CLIMATE...
(RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

         SUN      MON
        05/26    05/27
--------------------------
AUS   97/2018   100/2011
ATT   99/2018   100/2011
SAT   100/1989  100/2011
DRT   106/2018  106/2018

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry             100  77 100  74 /  10   0  20  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  99  75 100  73 /  10   0  20  20
New Braunfels Muni Airport    103  76 101  74 /  10   0  20  20
Burnet Muni Airport            99  73  97  72 /  10   0  10  20
Del Rio Intl Airport          111  75 110  82 /   0   0  10  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        99  73  97  72 /  10   0  20  20
Hondo Muni Airport            105  75 105  74 /   0   0  10  20
San Marcos Muni Airport       100  75 101  72 /  10   0  20  20
La Grange - Fayette Regional   98  78  97  75 /  10  10  20  20
San Antonio Intl Airport      103  77 104  75 /   0   0  10  20
Stinson Muni Airport          104  78 103  76 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT Monday for Kinney-
Maverick-Uvalde-Val Verde-Williamson-Zavala.

Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT Monday
for Atascosa-Bastrop-Bexar-Caldwell-Comal-De Witt-Dimmit-Fayette-
Frio-Gonzales-Guadalupe-Hays-Karnes-Lavaca-Lee-Medina-Travis-Wilson.

&&

$$

Short-Term...18
Long-Term...29
Aviation...18