764
FXUS64 KEWX 161723
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1223 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 205 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

An upper level ridge extends over TX from northern Mexico this
morning. In the lower levels high pressure off to the east is
producing southeasterly flow over South Central Texas. This flow is
keeping a warm, moist airmass in place. Temperatures this morning
are in the upper 70s and lower 80s and dewpoints range from the
lower 60s to the middle 70s. The upper ridge will suppress
convection today and tonight and our forecast is dry for the next 24
hours. High temperatures today will be within a degree or two of
yesterday`s. The same will be true of lows Monday morning.

Monday an upper trough over the Gulf will push the ridge back toward
the west. This will bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms for
the Coastal Plains and I-35 Corridor. Chances will be better farther
east where upper level height falls will be stronger. In addition to
the rain chances there will be slightly lower temperatures along and
east of Hwy 281.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 205 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Southeasterly flow continues Monday night into Tuesday with
precipitable water values from 1.5 to upwards of 2 inches forecast
by Tuesday afternoon for the eastern half of the CWA. Low to medium
shower and thunderstorm chances are seen as early as Tuesday morning
for the Coastal Plains expanding west to the I-35 corridor in the
afternoon. Highs Tuesday will be a few degrees lower than previous
days from the upper 80s and mid 90s in the northern and eastern
portions of the area to the upper 90s to around 102 degrees over the
Rio Grande Plains.

More uncertainty comes mid-week as the National Hurricane Center
continues to monitor for development of broad low pressure in the
southwestern portion of the Gulf of Mexico. There is currently a 60
percent chance for a tropical disturbance to develop in the first
half of the week with most guidance moving this low west or slightly
northwest into Mexico. For South Central Texas, this may bring a
surge of moisture into the area with shower and thunderstorm
development possible beginning Wednesday. GEFS ensemble guidance
generally gives a 40 to 60 percent chance for portions of the area
to see greater than 2 inches of precipitation at this time. WPC has
expanded a slight risk (level 2 of 4) for excessive rainfall to most
of the area for Wednesday into Thursday morning for this potential,
with the slight risk shifting to areas along the Rio Grande Thursday
into Friday morning. That said, the forecast will very likely change
depending on when this tropical feature forms and the track it
takes. Low confidence for temperatures mid to late week as these will
also largely depend on cloud cover and rain potential.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

VFR conditions have returned to the terminals this afternoon with VFR
expected through the remainder of the afternoon into the evening.
South/southeast winds will be slightly breezy at times through the
period. Another round of MVFR ceilings is expected late tonight with
the return of nocturnal stratus. Low chances for rain should
primarily remain southeast of the terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              96  77  94  77 /  10   0  10   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  95  76  94  76 /  10   0  20   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     96  76  95  77 /  20   0  20   0
Burnet Muni Airport            93  75  92  75 /  10   0  10   0
Del Rio Intl Airport          104  80 103  80 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        94  75  93  75 /  10   0  10   0
Hondo Muni Airport             97  76  97  77 /  10   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        95  75  93  75 /  20   0  20   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   94  76  91  76 /  10   0  40   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       97  78  96  77 /  20   0  10   0
Stinson Muni Airport           98  78  97  78 /  20   0  10   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...05
Long-Term...27
Aviation...29