802
FXUS64 KEWX 150537
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1237 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 836 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

850-500 mb moisture and instability is apparently overachieving most
of the model data as it sometimes can in the noisy field of high
terrain disturbances. We updated to show some more areas with a
mention of rain chances tonight and Sunday morning, with the
majority of quality rain and thunder confined to areas near the Rio
Grande and south of the CWA. Parts of Maverick and Dimmit counties
could see up to half an inch of rain given the slow movement of the
light rain area. Rest of the forecast is on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 239 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Mid and upper level clouds associated with the remnants of T.S.
Ileana continue to move into south central Texas this afternoon.
Morning precipitable water data shows a plume of higher moisture from
deep south Texas into the Rio Grande plains. With some additional
heating and weak lift from the remnants of Ileana, we will continue
to mention a low chance (20-30%) for showers and storms over the Rio
Grande plains from near Eagle Pass southward this evening and
overnight. Otherwise, expect partly to mostly cloudy skies tonight
with warm overnight lows in the 70s for most locations. On Sunday, a
weak boundary is expected to drop southward through central Texas. A
fair amount of the hi-res models show convection developing along
this boundary during the late afternoon and evening hours. Despite
the dry forecast from the NBM, we will stick closer to the previous
forecast in showing 20-30% rain chances from the Hill Country into
the I-35 corridor (near and north of San Antonio) and across the
coastal plains. As previously mentioned, high-based storms may be
capable of producing strong wind gusts and locally heavy downpours.
It will be warm again tomorrow with highs in the mid 90s to near 100
degrees. Record high temperatures being tied or broken are favored at
Austin Bergstrom, Austin Mabry and San Antonio.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 239 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

A stagnant and benign weather pattern with mid-level ridging and
light to modest south to southeasterly winds will prevail for the
majority of the long term period. This allows for the above average
temperatures to continue where afternoon highs mainly hold in the mid
to upper 90s while overnight lows remain warm and humid in the low
to mid 70s for most. Upper level troughing moving into the Four
Corners region may erode the ridging late in the period to allow a
slight chance for rain sometime during next weekend. The forecast
otherwise through the long term looks to remain rain free under
partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies each afternoon after the erosion
of areas of any morning clouds.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Isolated SHRA and stratiform -RA will continue near the Rio Grande
near DRT-CZT for the next few hours. The more widespread SHRA
activity will remain south of the area, across south Texas. Isolated
SHRA and TSRA activity is also forecast late Sunday afternoon
through the evening hours roughly near and north of a ERV-SAT-VCT
line with slightly more coverage roughly along and north of a AQO-
HYI-3T5 line. A few storms could be strong, with gusty winds >35 KT
in and near them. Outside of any SHRA/TSRA activity, generally VFR
conditions overnight and Sunday, with the exception of some brief IFR
conditions across the Coastal Plains in BR and low stratus around
daybreak

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Record High Temperatures

                       Sep 15      Sep 16

Austin Bergstrom.....99 (2005)...99 (2019)
Austin Camp Mabry....99 (1953)..101 (2019)
Del Rio.............102 (1912)..101 (1997)
San Antonio..........98 (1988)...99 (1954)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry             100  74  98  73 /  30  30   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 100  72  97  73 /  30  30   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport    100  71  98  73 /  20  30   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            98  72  95  71 /  30  30   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           98  77  96  77 /  10  10  10   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        99  73  96  72 /  30  30   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             96  72  97  73 /  10  10   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        98  72  98  72 /  30  30   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   98  72  97  72 /  30  30   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       98  74  98  75 /  20  20   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           99  74  98  75 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

Short-Term...Platt
Long-Term...Brady
Aviation...76