278
FXUS64 KEWX 141940
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
240 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 239 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Mid and upper level clouds associated with the remnants of T.S.
Ileana continue to move into south central Texas this afternoon.
Morning precipitable water data shows a plume of higher moisture from
deep south Texas into the Rio Grande plains. With some additional
heating and weak lift from the remnants of Ileana, we will continue
to mention a low chance (20-30%) for showers and storms over the Rio
Grande plains from near Eagle Pass southward this evening and
overnight. Otherwise, expect partly to mostly cloudy skies tonight
with warm overnight lows in the 70s for most locations. On Sunday, a
weak boundary is expected to drop southward through central Texas. A
fair amount of the hi-res models show convection developing along
this boundary during the late afternoon and evening hours. Despite
the dry forecast from the NBM, we will stick closer to the previous
forecast in showing 20-30% rain chances from the Hill Country into
the I-35 corridor (near and north of San Antonio) and across the
coastal plains. As previously mentioned, high-based storms may be
capable of producing strong wind gusts and locally heavy downpours.
It will be warm again tomorrow with highs in the mid 90s to near 100
degrees. Record high temperatures being tied or broken are favored at
Austin Bergstrom, Austin Mabry and San Antonio.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 239 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

A stagnant and benign weather pattern with mid-level ridging and
light to modest south to southeasterly winds will prevail for the
majority of the long term period. This allows for the above average
temperatures to continue where afternoon highs mainly hold in the mid
to upper 90s while overnight lows remain warm and humid in the low
to mid 70s for most. Upper level troughing moving into the Four
Corners region may erode the ridging late in the period to allow a
slight chance for rain sometime during next weekend. The forecast
otherwise through the long term looks to remain rain free under
partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies each afternoon after the erosion
of areas of any morning clouds.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

VFR conditions will continue at area TAF sites through the remainder
of this afternoon and evening. Some isolated convection may move into
the Rio Grande plains during the evening hours, but models suggest
most of the showers and storms will be south of DRT. Another round of
low clouds can be expected early tomorrow morning, with MVFR favored
near SAT/SSF. For late tomorrow afternoon and evening, the focus will
turn to a weak boundary moving in from the north, with some isolated
to scattered convection possible mainly after 15/20Z. For now, we
will not mention in the AUS forecast, but may need to add a mention
in subsequent forecasts.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Record High Temperatures

                      Sep 14       Sep 15     Sep 16

Austin Bergstrom....101 (2011)...99 (2005)...99 (2019)
Austin Camp Mabry...103 (2011)...99 (1953)..101 (2019)
Del Rio.............106 (2017)..102 (1912)..101 (1997)
San Antonio..........99 (2011)...98 (1988)...99 (1954)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              76 100  74  98 /   0  30  30   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  75 100  72  97 /   0  30  30   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     75 100  71  98 /   0  20  30   0
Burnet Muni Airport            74  98  72  95 /   0  30  30   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           79  98  77  96 /  10   0  10  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        75  99  73  96 /   0  30  30   0
Hondo Muni Airport             75  96  72  97 /   0  10  10   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        73  98  72  98 /   0  30  30   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   74  98  72  97 /   0  30  30   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       76  98  74  98 /   0  20  20   0
Stinson Muni Airport           78  99  74  98 /   0  20  20   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...Platt
Long-Term...Brady
Aviation...Platt