Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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189 FXUS64 KEWX 170523 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1223 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 207 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 An omega block pattern will remain in place from the short term period and beyond with the mid-level ridging portion of this block pattern remaining settled atop the state of Texas. Above average temperatures continue as a result with perhaps more daily record high temperatures being approached. See the climate section below for more details. While the rain chances remain very limited, a residual but decaying surface boundary that extends from the Hill Country eastward into portions of the Coastal Plains may be able to kick off a few stray showers both this afternoon and again Tuesday afternoon. I have elected to add a 10 percent mention for a rain shower in the most favored corridor. Southern Maverick into Dimmit County could also see the opportunity for a spotty shower this afternoon in association with a tongue of higher residual moisture that remains wedged up along the Rio Grande after the effects from the leftover mid-level energy and moisture from recent Tropical Storm Ileana in the Eastern Pacific. The moisture levels lower back towards normal along the Rio Grande into Tuesday and should keep rain chances out of the forecast there. Otherwise, a light flow maintains through the period under partly cloudy to mostly clear skies. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 207 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Mid-level ridging will start to overtake South Central Texas by mid to late week, setting the stage for continued hot and dry conditions. Highs each day will routinely climb into the mid to upper 90s along with mornings in the 70s through Saturday. A trough over the western CONUS will begin moving eastward this weekend, approaching the Texas Panhandle by late Saturday. Showers and thunderstorms look to stay north of our area with this storm system, but there is an off chance that is could push a surface cold front into the Hill Country as soon as next Sunday or Monday. This could help to flatten the ridging in place and bring slightly cooler temperatures and perhaps some increased rain chances to our region by early next week. For now, keep cranking that A.C. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 VFR flying conditions prevail overnight through Tuesday night. The exception could be a brief period of MVFR CIGs at KDRT early in the morning. Better chances for MVFR CIGs return early Wednesday morning. Light winds at 7 KTs or less, except 10 to 15 KTs at KDRT during the day on Tuesday. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 1223 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Record High Temperatures Sep 17 Austin Bergstrom....99 (2005*) Austin Camp Mabry...99 (2021) Del Rio............103 (2021) San Antonio.........98 (1997) * denotes previous years && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 75 98 76 98 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 74 97 75 98 / 0 10 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 74 98 76 98 / 0 10 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 72 95 74 96 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 78 97 79 98 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 74 96 74 96 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 74 95 75 96 / 0 10 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 73 96 74 97 / 0 10 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 74 95 74 96 / 0 10 0 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 76 97 77 96 / 0 10 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 76 98 78 98 / 0 10 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...04 Long-Term...17 Aviation...04