Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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035 FXUS64 KEWX 161150 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 650 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 205 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 An upper level ridge extends over TX from northern Mexico this morning. In the lower levels high pressure off to the east is producing southeasterly flow over South Central Texas. This flow is keeping a warm, moist airmass in place. Temperatures this morning are in the upper 70s and lower 80s and dewpoints range from the lower 60s to the middle 70s. The upper ridge will suppress convection today and tonight and our forecast is dry for the next 24 hours. High temperatures today will be within a degree or two of yesterday`s. The same will be true of lows Monday morning. Monday an upper trough over the Gulf will push the ridge back toward the west. This will bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms for the Coastal Plains and I-35 Corridor. Chances will be better farther east where upper level height falls will be stronger. In addition to the rain chances there will be slightly lower temperatures along and east of Hwy 281. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 205 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Southeasterly flow continues Monday night into Tuesday with precipitable water values from 1.5 to upwards of 2 inches forecast by Tuesday afternoon for the eastern half of the CWA. Low to medium shower and thunderstorm chances are seen as early as Tuesday morning for the Coastal Plains expanding west to the I-35 corridor in the afternoon. Highs Tuesday will be a few degrees lower than previous days from the upper 80s and mid 90s in the northern and eastern portions of the area to the upper 90s to around 102 degrees over the Rio Grande Plains. More uncertainty comes mid-week as the National Hurricane Center continues to monitor for development of broad low pressure in the southwestern portion of the Gulf of Mexico. There is currently a 60 percent chance for a tropical disturbance to develop in the first half of the week with most guidance moving this low west or slightly northwest into Mexico. For South Central Texas, this may bring a surge of moisture into the area with shower and thunderstorm development possible beginning Wednesday. GEFS ensemble guidance generally gives a 40 to 60 percent chance for portions of the area to see greater than 2 inches of precipitation at this time. WPC has expanded a slight risk (level 2 of 4) for excessive rainfall to most of the area for Wednesday into Thursday morning for this potential, with the slight risk shifting to areas along the Rio Grande Thursday into Friday morning. That said, the forecast will very likely change depending on when this tropical feature forms and the track it takes. Low confidence for temperatures mid to late week as these will also largely depend on cloud cover and rain potential. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 644 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 MVFR ceilings have developed over San Antonio and will spread to AUS and DRT within the next hour or so. Ceilings should dissipate before noon. Winds will be gusty this afternoon and early evening. MVFR ceilings will develop again overnight Sunday/Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 96 77 93 76 / 10 0 20 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 95 75 93 75 / 10 0 20 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 96 76 94 75 / 20 0 20 0 Burnet Muni Airport 93 75 91 75 / 10 0 10 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 104 80 103 80 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 94 74 91 74 / 10 0 20 0 Hondo Muni Airport 97 76 96 75 / 10 0 10 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 95 74 93 74 / 20 0 20 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 94 76 91 75 / 10 0 30 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 97 77 95 77 / 20 0 10 0 Stinson Muni Airport 98 78 96 77 / 20 0 10 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...05 Long-Term...27 Aviation...05