Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
924 FGUS74 KEWX 191444 ESFEWX TXC465-200843- Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 944 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 ...National Water Prediction Service (NWPS) Long Range Probabilistic Outlook for the Pecos River Basin in South Central Texas... The Austin/San Antonio Texas National Weather Service Office has implemented national water prediction service (NWPS) for the Pecos River Basin in South Central Texas. NWPS enables the National Weather Service to provide long-range probabilistic outlooks. This service is also available on the Internet. In the table below, the 90 through 10 percent columns indicate the chance the river could rise above the listed stage levels in the next 90 days. Example: The Pecos River near Langtry has a flood stage of 10 feet. There is a 50 percent chance the Langtry forecast point will rise above 1.9 feet during the next 90 days. Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations Valid 09/18/2024 - 12/17/2024 Location FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% -------- ------ --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Pecos River Langtry 10.0 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.9 2.8 3.5 7.1 10.8 Pandale 7.0 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 2.0 3.8 5.3 6.5 This long-range probabilistic outlook contains numbers that are calculated using multiple scenarios from 50 years of historical climatological and stream flow data. These numbers also take into account current conditions of the river and soil moisture. By providing the current range of probabilistic numbers...the level of risk associated with the long-range planning decisions can be determined. Additional supportive data and explanation are available on the Internet at: https://water.noaa.gov/wfo=ewx Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued around the third Thursday of every month. $$