644
FXUS62 KFFC 030604
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
204 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

...New 06Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 223 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Key Messages:

 - Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will remain possible in the
region through Monday.

 - The severe weather risk through Monday remains low, with peak
wind gusts near 40 mph and lighting being the main potential hazards
with any thunderstorms.

This Evening through Monday:

A weak shortwave trough will help widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms linger in the region through tonight. Though, with the
loss of diurnal heating this evening, the degree of activity should
diminish and become increasingly limited to portions of northeast
Georgia tonight. Severe weather is unlikely through this evening due
to a lack of effective wind shear (values below 20 kt), however peak
MUCAPE values near 1200 J/kg may be sufficient for a few stronger
updrafts in northern Georgia. Therefore a couple of isolated
downbursts with wind gusts near 40 mph can`t be entirely ruled out
through 10 PM.

A very weak transient ridge should move into the region on Monday.
Subsidence associated with the ridge looks nearly nonexistent, and
thus diurnally driven shower and thunderstorm activity is expected
again Monday afternoon. Despite patchy low clouds and fog in the
morning, diurnal heating should be more pronounced on Monday, with
afternoon highs returning to the upper 80s. This should lead to mean
MUCAPE values (per the 12Z HREF) in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range
Monday afternoon. Compared to today this would be a 50 to 100%
increase in available instability. Effective shear and lapse rates
should remain marketable weak however, and thus the overall severe
risk remains low. The strongest storms could produce isolated wind
gusts near 40 mph, frequent lighting and brief heavy rainfall.

Albright

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday morning through next Saturday)
Issued at 223 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

At a glance:

    - Daily rain chances

    - Return to slightly above average warmth

As we enter the extended range on Tuesday, low-amplitude mid-level
ridging overspreads much of the Eastern Seaboard. At the surface, the
Southeast sits on the far western periphery of a surface high,
within a relative weakness in presiding flow. A weak shortwave
disturbance and associated moisture maxima approaching from the west
will support the development of mostly diurnally-driven convection
during the afternoon Tuesday. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms are possible, but in the absence of organizational
kinematics, not expecting much in the way of severe weather chances.
The entirety of the state is outlined by SPC`s General Thunder risk
for Day 3, supportive of an isolated strong storm.

Beyond Tuesday, a mid-level ridge sets up across the Desert
Southwest, positioning the Deep South under a regime of northwesterly
flow that carries through the remainder of the long- term period. As
is characteristic of this flow pattern, low-end chance PoPs (30-50%)
will develop each day. With moist southwesterly flow off of the Gulf
of Mexico -- and PWATs >1.5" each day -- the atmosphere will be
primed for efficient rainfall and quick recovery between rounds of
convection. Forecast multi-day (Tuesday through Thursday) rainfall
totals across north and central Georgia currently stand between a
tenth and three-quarters of an inch, but these values may be exceeded
in areas that experience stronger or slower moving storms. For now,
it looks like the best chances for more quasi-organized thunderstorms
will come Wednesday through Thursday, aided by a pre-frontal trough.
Even so, any weak disturbances traversing our mid-level flow could
serve as a catalyst to nudge any discrete cells into more long-lived
clusters that persist beyond the loss of afternoon heating. Per SPC,
and corroborated by taking a dive into ensemble guidance,
predictability is too low at this range to pin down any clear signals
for widespread severe weather. The most probable outcome appears to
be an isolated strong to marginally severe storm (typical as we move
into a more summertime pattern driven by instability as opposed to
wind shear) capable of producing gusty to damaging winds and nuisance
flooding if storm motions are slow. Rain and storm chances then look
to taper off for a majority of the weekend as a drier airmass
settles in in the wake of a cold frontal passage. Highs will be in
the mid-80s to lower-90s each day, with lows in the 60s to lower-70s.


96

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 153 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Showers and isolated thunderstorms are continuing from the E portion
of the Atlanta metro area to near AHN. The intensity has been
decreasing during the past hour. In the wake of the recent rainfall,
low cigs and some patchy, mostly light fog is anticipated into the
morning hours. Have continued the previous forecast of a BKN deck at
around 1200 ft with a scattered deck around 600 ft. Isolated to
scattered showers and storms are expected once again later this
afternoon and evening in similar locations. Have adjusted to time
frame of this activity a bit later than the previous forecast
package. Winds will be very light and generally out of the SW outside
of convective activity.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Medium on all elements.

SEC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          66  88  67  87 /  10  30  40  60
Atlanta         68  88  69  89 /  10  40  30  50
Blairsville     61  82  63  81 /  10  40  30  70
Cartersville    66  88  67  88 /  10  40  30  60
Columbus        69  90  70  92 /  10  40  20  40
Gainesville     66  87  67  85 /  10  40  40  60
Macon           68  90  69  91 /  10  40  20  50
Rome            66  87  68  89 /  10  40  30  60
Peachtree City  66  88  67  89 /  10  40  30  50
Vidalia         69  91  69  92 /  10  50  20  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

$$

SHORT TERM...Albright
LONG TERM....96
AVIATION...SEC