Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
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644 FXUS62 KFFC 030604 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 204 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024 ...New 06Z Aviation Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Monday) Issued at 223 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Key Messages: - Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will remain possible in the region through Monday. - The severe weather risk through Monday remains low, with peak wind gusts near 40 mph and lighting being the main potential hazards with any thunderstorms. This Evening through Monday: A weak shortwave trough will help widely scattered showers and thunderstorms linger in the region through tonight. Though, with the loss of diurnal heating this evening, the degree of activity should diminish and become increasingly limited to portions of northeast Georgia tonight. Severe weather is unlikely through this evening due to a lack of effective wind shear (values below 20 kt), however peak MUCAPE values near 1200 J/kg may be sufficient for a few stronger updrafts in northern Georgia. Therefore a couple of isolated downbursts with wind gusts near 40 mph can`t be entirely ruled out through 10 PM. A very weak transient ridge should move into the region on Monday. Subsidence associated with the ridge looks nearly nonexistent, and thus diurnally driven shower and thunderstorm activity is expected again Monday afternoon. Despite patchy low clouds and fog in the morning, diurnal heating should be more pronounced on Monday, with afternoon highs returning to the upper 80s. This should lead to mean MUCAPE values (per the 12Z HREF) in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range Monday afternoon. Compared to today this would be a 50 to 100% increase in available instability. Effective shear and lapse rates should remain marketable weak however, and thus the overall severe risk remains low. The strongest storms could produce isolated wind gusts near 40 mph, frequent lighting and brief heavy rainfall. Albright && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday morning through next Saturday) Issued at 223 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 At a glance: - Daily rain chances - Return to slightly above average warmth As we enter the extended range on Tuesday, low-amplitude mid-level ridging overspreads much of the Eastern Seaboard. At the surface, the Southeast sits on the far western periphery of a surface high, within a relative weakness in presiding flow. A weak shortwave disturbance and associated moisture maxima approaching from the west will support the development of mostly diurnally-driven convection during the afternoon Tuesday. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible, but in the absence of organizational kinematics, not expecting much in the way of severe weather chances. The entirety of the state is outlined by SPC`s General Thunder risk for Day 3, supportive of an isolated strong storm. Beyond Tuesday, a mid-level ridge sets up across the Desert Southwest, positioning the Deep South under a regime of northwesterly flow that carries through the remainder of the long- term period. As is characteristic of this flow pattern, low-end chance PoPs (30-50%) will develop each day. With moist southwesterly flow off of the Gulf of Mexico -- and PWATs >1.5" each day -- the atmosphere will be primed for efficient rainfall and quick recovery between rounds of convection. Forecast multi-day (Tuesday through Thursday) rainfall totals across north and central Georgia currently stand between a tenth and three-quarters of an inch, but these values may be exceeded in areas that experience stronger or slower moving storms. For now, it looks like the best chances for more quasi-organized thunderstorms will come Wednesday through Thursday, aided by a pre-frontal trough. Even so, any weak disturbances traversing our mid-level flow could serve as a catalyst to nudge any discrete cells into more long-lived clusters that persist beyond the loss of afternoon heating. Per SPC, and corroborated by taking a dive into ensemble guidance, predictability is too low at this range to pin down any clear signals for widespread severe weather. The most probable outcome appears to be an isolated strong to marginally severe storm (typical as we move into a more summertime pattern driven by instability as opposed to wind shear) capable of producing gusty to damaging winds and nuisance flooding if storm motions are slow. Rain and storm chances then look to taper off for a majority of the weekend as a drier airmass settles in in the wake of a cold frontal passage. Highs will be in the mid-80s to lower-90s each day, with lows in the 60s to lower-70s. 96 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 153 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Showers and isolated thunderstorms are continuing from the E portion of the Atlanta metro area to near AHN. The intensity has been decreasing during the past hour. In the wake of the recent rainfall, low cigs and some patchy, mostly light fog is anticipated into the morning hours. Have continued the previous forecast of a BKN deck at around 1200 ft with a scattered deck around 600 ft. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected once again later this afternoon and evening in similar locations. Have adjusted to time frame of this activity a bit later than the previous forecast package. Winds will be very light and generally out of the SW outside of convective activity. //ATL Confidence...06Z Update... Medium on all elements. SEC && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 66 88 67 87 / 10 30 40 60 Atlanta 68 88 69 89 / 10 40 30 50 Blairsville 61 82 63 81 / 10 40 30 70 Cartersville 66 88 67 88 / 10 40 30 60 Columbus 69 90 70 92 / 10 40 20 40 Gainesville 66 87 67 85 / 10 40 40 60 Macon 68 90 69 91 / 10 40 20 50 Rome 66 87 68 89 / 10 40 30 60 Peachtree City 66 88 67 89 / 10 40 30 50 Vidalia 69 91 69 92 / 10 50 20 50 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. $$ SHORT TERM...Albright LONG TERM....96 AVIATION...SEC