763
FXUS62 KFFC 051847
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
247 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024


...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 246 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Remnant MCV/vortmax continues eastern progression through the CWA
and is currently almost centered in it. Some showers and storms
fired up primarily to the east of the feature in region of slight
PVA earlier this afternoon and will continue through east Georgia
this afternoon. Mild subsidence is likely occurring on the back side
of this feature and helping to suppress convection in portions of
western GA despite copious moisture and ample afternoon heating.
Do think we still could hit the convective T at some point in
these areas and have a few showers or rumbles of thunder, so
maintained a 30 percent chances across much of the area outside of
west central Georgia which has been worked over from earlier
convection. Given upper levels are pretty warm, any convection
that goes up likely won`t be long lived, so severe threat is
extremely low.

An initial front will approach the CWA tomorrow but models are
showing forcing for it waning and it stalling and mostly washing out
across the CWA. This means it won`t really provide much in the way
of lift via surface convergence, so model PoPs continue the trend of
lowering. Do believe we will see some diurnally driven airmass
storms out ahead of this during the afternoon, and won`t rule out
something getting a bit spicy, but the severe threat remains very
low in the absence of any shear or upper level support. Another
stronger front will approach during the overnight hours and bring a
much drier airmass into the CWA as we go into the long term forecast
period on Friday.

High tomorrow will be in the 80s, likely somewhat tampered by
afternoon cloud cover. Copious moisture remains in place with
dewpoints likely into the upper 60s to lower 70s, giving us some
"air we can wear". Lows will be in the 60s tonight and tomorrow
night, though with cooler, drier air filtering in Thursday night, we
could see some upper 50s in the far north.

Lusk

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday morning through next Tuesday)
Issued at 246 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

For now, no widespread significant weather impacts are expected
throughout the long term forecast. The long term forecast kicks off
with a pleasant period of quiet weather as a cold front is expected
to bring an unseasonably dry airmass to the forecast area. While
northwesterly flow typically spells trouble during the summer, this
dry airmass will limit convective activity and bring dewpoints in
the 50s to much of north Georgia, which will feel more spring-like
compared to the typical summertime dewpoints in the 70s. While
daytime max temperatures will still be quite warm in the 80s to low
90s, overnight low temperatures Friday going into Saturday morning
will be as low a the upper 50s across portions of north Georgia.
Quiet weather conditions will persist through much of the day
Saturday before a deep trough is poised to bring the next round of
active weather. Yet another frontal boundary will approach the
forecast area and is set to bring an organized line of convection
late Saturday evening into early Sunday. North Georgia is expected
to see the bulk of the activity from this system during the day
Sunday before coverage of showers and thunderstorms progress further
south with the front by Monday. A reinforcing shortwave rounding the
base of the trough will help that front clear the forecast area by
Monday before the boundary becomes stalled over northern Florida.
This boundary will then serve as the focal point for shower and
thunderstorm development where the northern extent of this activity
is expected to bring scattered storms over portions of central
Georgia. At this time, widespread severe weather or flooding related
issues are expected. This front does, however, appear to bring
temperatures that will be running a tad cooler than average across
more portions of the area early next week.

KAL

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 138 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

SHRA and occasional TSRA have pushed east of metro TAF sites while
still impacting AHN/MCN/CSG. There is small chance of some
redevelopment this afternoon, but will only carry TEMPO until 20Z
for now as conditions west look less favorable for TSRA/SHRA.
Front will move towards area tomorrow by morning bringing
increased chances of TSRA/SHRA once again, though uncertainty
around just how much. Cigs expected to be MVFR, slight chance of
seeing some IFR. Rain chances stick around through afternoon.
Winds will be west side, 8-12 kts.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Low confidence in TSRA timing and coverage. High all others.

Lusk

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          68  84  66  85 /  50  50  20   0
Atlanta         70  84  68  85 /  50  50  10   0
Blairsville     64  80  60  77 /  50  50  10   0
Cartersville    67  85  64  84 /  50  50  10   0
Columbus        71  86  70  90 /  30  60  20   0
Gainesville     69  83  66  83 /  50  50  10   0
Macon           70  86  69  90 /  30  50  20  10
Rome            69  87  66  86 /  50  50  10   0
Peachtree City  68  85  66  87 /  40  50  20   0
Vidalia         71  91  71  92 /  40  50  30  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lusk
LONG TERM....KAL
AVIATION...Lusk