381
FXUS62 KFFC 200730
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
330 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024


...Morning Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 322 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Key Messages:

 - Dry weather will prevail in the region today.

 - Isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms may return to
central Georgia on Friday.

Today and Friday:

Dry weather will prevail in northern and central Georgia today as
easterly flow along the southern side of a ridge over the Mid-
Atlantic continues to advect in a relatively dry airmass. PW values
may creep back up over and inch is places this evening, but for the
majority of the day they will be below an inch. Combine this with
modest surface dewpoints and paltry mid level lapse rates (700-500
mb lapse rates of 3.8 to 4.2 C/km), and instability will be
insufficient for convection today. Fair skies will help high
temperatures climb into the 88-93 degree range this afternoon.

The upper level ridge will retrograde to the west tonight and
Friday, with the core of the ridge setting up along a line from
Texas to the Tennessee Valley by Friday afternoon. Meanwhile the
easterly wave (clearly visible on satellite this morning just
northeast of the Bahamas) will continue to push eastward, guided by
the prevailing flow around the ridge. The National Hurricane Center
has maintained a low probability (30% chance) of tropical
development with this feature over the next 48 hours. Given that the
majority of the model guidance favors little to no intensification
with this wave, their outlook seems quite reasonable. One thing this
wave will do is drive tropical moisture back into our region Friday
and Friday night (PW values rise back above 1.5 inches). Showers and
isolated thunderstorms could develop in central Georgia by Friday
evening as surface dewpoint rise to near 70 degrees and a marginal
amount of instability develops (MUCAPE values from the HREF of 500
to 1250 j/kg). Lower dewpoints should limit instability and keep
northern Georgia dry through Friday. High temperatures should climb
by a couple of degrees on Friday, especially in northern Georgia
where less cloud cover and lower dewpoints will aid diurnal heating.
Afternoon high temperatures in the 90 to 95 degree range are
anticipated.

Albright

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 322 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Other than possible extreme heat conditions Monday-Wednesday,
major forecast concerns or significant weather impacts are not
expected in the long term period. Overall forecast confidence is
below normal.

Most recent guidance still continuing depiction of large E-W
oriented upper ridge waffling roughly from Southern Plains to the
Mid- Atlantic states Friday through Sunday. Depending on where
tropical low ends up, parts of the area could be very moist with
widespread diurnal convection on Sat and Sun. GFS and EC members
do bring in tropical low well inland over S Georgia and N Florida
while GEPS and SREF keep most of it over the Atlantic. Even
without a strong consensus and relatively strong upper ridge just
to our north, will still need 20-40% PoPs this weekend.

By Monday, vast majority of guidance members show large scale
troughing over the E CONUS and ridging centered over the SW US
resulting in weak NW flow along with some hints at MCS de-
velopment esp late Tues and Wed over mid-South. Without a big push
of dry air, will also have some sct diurnal convection even with
NW flow. In theory, daytime temps should be a tad cooler in this
pattern but guidance really sticking with above normal temps,
perhaps due to the very dry soil and vegetation conditions we are
experiencing. Dewpoints also will be quite high with resulting
heat index values approaching heat advisory criteria Mon-Wed. NBM
dewpoints have been shown to have a high bias during warm-season
heat waves so may need to adjust them as we approach the potential
heat event.

Outside of the tropical wave off the FL peninsula forecast to move
toward the Georgia coast late Thurs and Fri, no tropical activity
is expected over the region at this time.

SNELSON

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 109 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

VFR conditions (SKC-BKN AOA 5000 ft AGL and unrestricted
visibility) will prevail in the region through at least 12Z
Friday. Easterly (070-100) winds will continue in the region, with
peak speeds of 8 to 14 kt expected between 14Z and 23Z Thursday.
Gusts in the 18 to 24 kt range should occur between 15Z and 21Z
Thursday.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
High confidence in all elements of the KATL TAF.

Albright

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          89  66  92  69 /   0   0  10   0
Atlanta         91  70  93  72 /   0   0   0   0
Blairsville     85  63  87  64 /   0   0  10   0
Cartersville    92  68  94  69 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus        93  69  95  73 /   0   0  20  10
Gainesville     88  68  90  69 /   0   0   0   0
Macon           92  66  94  71 /   0   0  20  10
Rome            93  69  95  71 /   0   0   0   0
Peachtree City  91  66  93  69 /   0   0  10   0
Vidalia         91  68  92  73 /   0  10  50  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Albright
LONG TERM....SNELSON
AVIATION...Albright