699
FXUS62 KFFC 200929
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
529 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024



...New 06Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 322 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Key Messages:

 - Dry weather will prevail in the region today.

 - Isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms may return to
   central Georgia on Friday.

Today and Friday:

Dry weather will prevail in northern and central Georgia today as
easterly flow along the southern side of a ridge over the Mid-
Atlantic continues to advect in a relatively dry airmass. PW values
may creep back up over and inch is places this evening, but for the
majority of the day they will be below an inch. Combine this with
modest surface dewpoints and paltry mid level lapse rates (700-500
mb lapse rates of 3.8 to 4.2 C/km), and instability will be
insufficient for convection today. Fair skies will help high
temperatures climb into the 88-93 degree range this afternoon.

The upper level ridge will retrograde to the west tonight and
Friday, with the core of the ridge setting up along a line from
Texas to the Tennessee Valley by Friday afternoon. Meanwhile the
easterly wave (clearly visible on satellite this morning just
northeast of the Bahamas) will continue to push eastward, guided by
the prevailing flow around the ridge. The National Hurricane Center
has maintained a low probability (30% chance) of tropical
development with this feature over the next 48 hours. Given that the
majority of the model guidance favors little to no intensification
with this wave, their outlook seems quite reasonable. One thing this
wave will do is drive tropical moisture back into our region Friday
and Friday night (PW values rise back above 1.5 inches). Showers and
isolated thunderstorms could develop in central Georgia by Friday
evening as surface dewpoint rise to near 70 degrees and a marginal
amount of instability develops (MUCAPE values from the HREF of 500
to 1250 j/kg). Lower dewpoints should limit instability and keep
northern Georgia dry through Friday. High temperatures should climb
by a couple of degrees on Friday, especially in northern Georgia
where less cloud cover and lower dewpoints will aid diurnal heating.
Afternoon high temperatures in the 90 to 95 degree range are
anticipated.

Albright

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 322 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Other than possible extreme heat conditions Monday-Wednesday,
major forecast concerns or significant weather impacts are not
expected in the long term period. Overall forecast confidence is
below normal.

Most recent guidance still continuing depiction of large E-W
oriented upper ridge waffling roughly from Southern Plains to the
Mid- Atlantic states Friday through Sunday. Depending on where
tropical low ends up, parts of the area could be very moist with
widespread diurnal convection on Sat and Sun. GFS and EC members
do bring in tropical low well inland over S Georgia and N Florida
while GEPS and SREF keep most of it over the Atlantic. Even
without a strong consensus and relatively strong upper ridge just
to our north, will still need 20-40% PoPs this weekend.

By Monday, vast majority of guidance members show large scale
troughing over the E CONUS and ridging centered over the SW US
resulting in weak NW flow along with some hints at MCS de-
velopment esp late Tues and Wed over mid-South. Without a big push
of dry air, will also have some sct diurnal convection even with
NW flow. In theory, daytime temps should be a tad cooler in this
pattern but guidance really sticking with above normal temps,
perhaps due to the very dry soil and vegetation conditions we are
experiencing. Dewpoints also will be quite high with resulting
heat index values approaching heat advisory criteria Mon-Wed. NBM
dewpoints have been shown to have a high bias during warm-season
heat waves so may need to adjust them as we approach the potential
heat event.

Outside of the tropical wave off the FL peninsula forecast to move
toward the Georgia coast late Thurs and Fri, no tropical activity
is expected over the region at this time.

SNELSON

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 526 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

VFR conditions (SKC-BKN AOA 4500 ft AGL and unrestricted
visibility) will prevail in the region through at least 18Z
Friday. Easterly (070-100) winds will continue in the region, with
peak speeds of 8 to 14 kt expected between 14Z and 23Z Thursday.
Gusts in the 18 to 24 kt range should occur between 15Z and 23Z
today.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
High confidence in all elements of the KATL TAF.

Albright

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          66  92  69  93 /   0   0   0  20
Atlanta         69  93  72  94 /   0   0   0  20
Blairsville     63  88  65  89 /   0  10   0  20
Cartersville    67  94  70  96 /   0   0   0  20
Columbus        69  95  73  95 /   0  10  10  30
Gainesville     67  91  70  92 /   0   0   0  20
Macon           66  93  71  95 /   0  20  10  30
Rome            69  96  71  96 /   0   0   0  20
Peachtree City  66  93  69  94 /   0   0   0  20
Vidalia         69  92  73  93 /  10  60  20  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Albright
LONG TERM....SNELSON
AVIATION...Albright