014
FXUS62 KFFC 260927
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
527 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024


...Morning Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 526 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024

Definitely a quieter start to this morning compared to yesterday.
Rainfall from yesterday and clearer skies overnight is allowing for
some patchy mist to form which could develop into areas of very
patchy fog later this morning. Southeast this morning is on the edge
of a subtropical ridge and trough over the Great Plains with
embedded potent shortwave. Thunderstorms are ongoing across the
Ozarks along and south of a lifting warm front. Further organization
of these storms are what will need to be monitored today - some
guidance depicts these moving through far north GA later this
afternoon/evening as an MCS. If this occurs, CAPE values will be in
the 1000-1500 J/kg range and effective bulk shear values of 30 kts+
will allow for some damaging wind gusts and potential for large
hail. PoPs for today is concentrated in these locations as a result.
Can`t completely rule out some airmass thunderstorms today, but
notable capping is in place with stout EML at 700 mb in forecast
soundings which should limit this overall elsewhere.

Main show will be later tonight. Most convective guidance depicts
organized line entering the northern part of the state later
tonight. CAPE values will remain elevated as surface is expected to
remain mostly mixed limiting effects of nocturnal inversion. This
line is expected after midnight and will still be in place during
the morning hours, but should begin to decay as it loses upper level
support with further southward extent. Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) is
in place across north GA, with damaging winds the primary threat,
though a brief spin up tornado along the line will be possible.

Question after this will be what occurs during the afternoon
tomorrow. How long the line remains in tact and how far it
progresses will likely play a role in this. Environment should be
able to recover into the afternoon after morning MCS, and remnant
outflow will be in place to allow for some redevelopment of
afternoon storms. Environment could be relatively potent, with
SBCAPE values climbing well into the 2000+ J/kg range. Plenty of
overlying shear will allow for some potential organization of cold
pools. Slight Risk is in place for western GA with Marginal risk
elsewhere, though expansion of this will be possible.

Lusk

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 526 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024

The extended forecast starts off on the heels of the exiting frontal
boundary with a drier airmass moving in. The cold front that moves
in to the area in the short term will be exiting the area Mon day
evening with diminishing showers and thunderstorms through Tue
morning. High pressure builds in behind the frontal boundary with
drier air and slightly cooler temps moving in across the region.
Fairly quiet weather anticipated through the end of the week.
Moisture begins to creep back in for the weekend and could see
precip chances move back in for the weekend.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 250 AM EDT Sun May 26 2024

VFR to start TAF period. Could see some periods of patchy low cigs
during the morning hours that could be MVFR or even IFR, generally
in the 10Z-14Z time frame. FEW to SCT cu field expected during the
afternoon. Low chance of seeing an afternoon storm at metro TAF
sites, but not high enough to warrant PROB30 mention at this time.
Winds will be from the SW 5-10 kts through most of period. Lower
cigs and convection may be approaching airport tomorrow morning at
very end of TAF period - expect mention in next TAF issuance.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Medium confidence morning low cigs, high all others.

Lusk

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          90  69  85  65 /  20  20  40  20
Atlanta         90  71  86  67 /  10  20  40  20
Blairsville     83  64  80  59 /  40  50  60  10
Cartersville    90  68  87  63 /  20  40  60  20
Columbus        92  72  88  69 /   0  10  40  30
Gainesville     88  70  83  65 /  30  30  50  10
Macon           93  70  89  68 /  10  10  40  30
Rome            90  70  87  64 /  20  50  60  10
Peachtree City  90  70  86  65 /  10  20  40  20
Vidalia         93  72  93  72 /  10  10  40  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lusk
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...Lusk