411
FXUS62 KFFC 151046
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
646 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024


...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 314 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

 - The warmest temperatures of the year so far are expected this
   afternoon.

 - Isolated thunderstorms are possible in the region this
   afternoon and Sunday afternoon.

Today and Sunday:

Heat remains the primary forecast concern this weekend. Widespread
high temperatures in the upper 90s are forecast today, then a mix of
mid and upper 90s are anticipated on Sunday. A few areas could tip
over the triple digit threshold this afternoon along a line from
Columbus to Macon, where NBM guidance suggests 10-25 percent chances
of reaching 100 degrees. These would be the first 100 degree
readings of the year in central Georgia should they occur. As noted
yesterday, relatively low humidity values (30 to 45 percent) should
keep peak heat indices in the 98 to 104 degree range today and
Sunday. Given that the threshold for a Heat Advisory is a heat index
of at least 105 degrees, we do not anticipate issuing any heat
related products this weekend. Caution should still be exercised by
anyone with outdoor activities planned as these temperatures will be
6 to 12 degrees above seasonal averages and the warmest temperatures
of the year so far. If possible limit intense outdoor activities to
the morning or evening hours, and ensure that you stay hydrated with
plenty of water.

The primary change in the forecast over the last 24 hours is the
introduction of isolated thunderstorm chances (15-20%) this
afternoon and evening. Concerns remain regarding the ability of
convection to overcome subsidence from an upper level ridge and
limited low level moisture. However, CAM guidance has been
consistent from run to run in generating isolated storms along a
weak convergence zone near the Interstate 20 corridor and this has
increased forecaster confidence. Where and if storms develop,
downburst winds could become a concern. Forecast soundings for this
afternoon have significant inverted V profiles below 700 mb and
DCAPE values over 1000 J/kg, both of which are favorable for
evaporative cooling and downbursts. Additional isolated thunderstorm
activity is anticipated Sunday afternoon, when slightly higher
surface dewpoints should compensate for high temperatures that are 1-
3 degrees lower than today.

Albright

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 314 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Highlights:

 - Warm, above normal temperatures continue through the long
   term.

 - Isolated rain and thunder chances will be possible next week.

Ridging and surface high pressure will be in place at the start of
the long term period (Sunday night) and will influence the weather
pattern through the majority of the period. On Monday, midlevel
ridging becomes centered across the Eastern CONUS and surface high
pressure will be offshore resulting in some moisture return. This
will equate to continued above normal temperatures and dry
conditions. Any rain and thunder chances remain a possibility next
week but isolated in nature given building midlevel ridging aloft.
While no severe weather is expected at this time, an isolated
damaging wind gust cannot be ruled out with any storms that do form
and quickly collapse. Latest guidance continues to indicate a slight
uptick in PoPs towards next weekend as the influence of midlevel
ridging becomes weaker and surface high pressure pushes further
offshore. Forecast temperatures through the long term will be in
the low to mid 90s aside from the the NE Georgia mountains where
temperatures will be in the 80s. Forecast low temperatures will be
in the upper 60s to low 70s.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 634 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Aside from locations near thunderstorms between 20Z today and 02Z
Sunday, VFR conditions (SKC-BKN AOA 5000 ft AGL and unrestricted
visibility) area anticipated through at least 06Z Sunday. After
06Z Sunday there is a low chance (15% or less) for low clouds or
fog in eastern Georgia. Winds will be modest (3 to 8 kt) today.
Through 20Z a mix of northeast and southeast winds are expected.
Then wind directions may become more variable.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Moderate overall confidence in the KATL TAF.
High confidence in the wind speed and visibility forecasts.
Low confidence in the wind direction forecast.
Low confidence in the potential for thunderstorms between 20Z
today and 02Z Sunday.

Albright

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          72  92  71  90 /  20  20  10  10
Atlanta         75  94  74  92 /  20  20  10  10
Blairsville     68  86  67  85 /  10  20  20  30
Cartersville    73  94  73  93 /  20  20  10  10
Columbus        75  97  75  94 /  10  20  10  10
Gainesville     72  90  72  88 /  10  20  20  10
Macon           73  96  72  94 /  20  20   0  10
Rome            73  96  74  94 /  10  20  10  20
Peachtree City  73  95  72  93 /  20  20  10   0
Vidalia         74  96  73  93 /  10  20   0  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Albright
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...Albright