Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
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792 FXUS62 KFFC 011447 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 1047 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 ...Mid-Morning Update... .UPDATE... Issued at 1040 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Forecast remains on track for this morning. Light rain has begun across our far western tier. Coverage will continue to be sparse but several waves of (mostly) light precipitation are likely through the afternoon. As the entire state falls within SPC`s General Thunder line, cannot rule out occasional embedded thunderstorms, capable of producing locally heavy rainfall and frequent lightning. 96 && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 413 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Showers and embedded thunderstorms are underway across much of AL at the time of this writing, driven by a shortwave trough aloft over the ArkLaMiss. The shortwave will drift east/northeast through the day, driving the moisture axis currently over AL eastward over the western half or so of GA. It`s across this area that isolated to scattered showers are expected today. Isolated thunderstorms are possible (illustrated by the General Thunder risk from SPC) but the HREF and CAMs suggest that appreciable instability will struggle to materialize due largely to dense mid- level and upper-level cloud cover. High temperatures will be in the 70s across much of northern and western GA thanks to cloud cover, while temperatures are forecasted to reach the lower-80s to mid-80s across central and eastern GA, where more insolation is expected. In the mountains, temperatures may only reach the mid-60s to upper 60s. The passage of the shortwave and the presence of its associated moisture axis warrants a chance of showers and storms across much of the area overnight, with 40% to 60% PoPs generally along and north of I-85, in closest proximity to the lift/ascent from the shortwave. Overnight/early Sunday morning lows will be in the 60s outside of the northeast GA mountains, where mid-50s to upper-50s are expected. Quasi-zonal flow aloft is expected on Sunday, but ample moisture and decreasing cloud cover should allow for daytime destabilization and scattered to possibly widespread showers. Isolated to scattered storms appear likely as HREF-progged MUCAPE ranges from 500-1500 J/kg across much of the area. Marginal (at best) mid-level lapse rates and 0-6 km bulk shear less than 30 kts suggest that severe storms are not likely. That said, forecast soundings show decent DCAPE (600-800 J/kg) so a few storms could produce gusty to locally damaging winds should the downdrafts tap into and mix down drier air aloft. Appropriately, SPC has the entire area in a General Thunder risk. High temperatures are forecasted to be in the upper 70s to mid-80s outside of the mountains, where temperatures may only peak in the 60s. Martin && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 413 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 The period will start with a weak upper trough extending from S New England to the FL peninsula. This feature will shift E early next week, leaving a weak upper pattern over the area. At the surface, a weak frontal system will become diffuse, with isolated to low end scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday night. Early next week, weak disturbances will pass mostly N of the area. This will lead to more of a diurnal summertime thunderstorm pattern slightly favoring the N half of the area. By mid to late weak, the upper pattern will become more troughy over the Great Lakes and OH Valley. This pattern will support a surface front which is presently forecast to sweep through the area late Thursday and early Friday. More uniform rain chances are expected ahead of the front, with drier conditions behind the front on Friday. At this time, widespread severe wx is not anticipated. However, a few storms may be strong across the extreme N on Wed and Thu afternoons. Isolated strong storms will also be possible accompanying the front as it moves S across Central GA on Fri afternoon. Temperatures are expected to be near to slightly above normal, with low temperatures a bit farther from the norm. By Fri, the cold front will bring slightly below normal high temperatures to the NW portion of the state. /SEC SEC && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 603 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Dense mid-level/upper-level clouds are expected through the TAF period. SCT/BKN cloud bases around 5-7 kft will arrive later this morning and persist through the afternoon as -SHRA currently over AL push into western GA. Confidence remains relatively low regarding -SHRA occurring at ATL for any impactful amount of time. As a result, the timing of the PROB30 is tricky, but have opted for 21z to 01z with the 12z TAF issuance. The potential for TS at ATL remains very low given little to no anticipated instability. Winds will be SE at 5-10 kts with gusts of 15-20 kts. There is potential for -SHRA to persist overnight tonight as well as MVFR CIGs tomorrow morning. //ATL Confidence...12Z Update... Low to medium confidence on -SHRA coverage. High confidence on all other elements. Martin && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 64 80 64 87 / 30 50 30 20 Atlanta 65 81 66 86 / 40 50 20 20 Blairsville 58 74 60 81 / 60 70 20 20 Cartersville 63 82 64 87 / 60 60 20 20 Columbus 66 83 67 88 / 50 40 20 20 Gainesville 63 78 65 85 / 40 60 20 20 Macon 66 82 65 88 / 20 40 20 20 Rome 64 82 65 88 / 60 60 20 20 Peachtree City 64 82 65 87 / 40 50 20 20 Vidalia 68 84 68 89 / 10 40 10 30 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Martin LONG TERM....SEC AVIATION...Martin