Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
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622 FXUS62 KFFC 151436 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 1036 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 ...Mid-Morning Update... .UPDATE... Issued at 1025 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Forecast remains on track for today. Still expecting the hottest temperatures of the year (thus far) to occur this afternoon, with highs in the mid-to-upper 90s for all but the terrain of northeast Georgia. Protect yourself against heat-related illnesses by taking frequent breaks in the shade and remaining hydrated if planning on spending extended periods of time outside. 96 && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 314 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 - The warmest temperatures of the year so far are expected this afternoon. - Isolated thunderstorms are possible in the region this afternoon and Sunday afternoon. Today and Sunday: Heat remains the primary forecast concern this weekend. Widespread high temperatures in the upper 90s are forecast today, then a mix of mid and upper 90s are anticipated on Sunday. A few areas could tip over the triple digit threshold this afternoon along a line from Columbus to Macon, where NBM guidance suggests 10-25 percent chances of reaching 100 degrees. These would be the first 100 degree readings of the year in central Georgia should they occur. As noted yesterday, relatively low humidity values (30 to 45 percent) should keep peak heat indices in the 98 to 104 degree range today and Sunday. Given that the threshold for a Heat Advisory is a heat index of at least 105 degrees, we do not anticipate issuing any heat related products this weekend. Caution should still be exercised by anyone with outdoor activities planned as these temperatures will be 6 to 12 degrees above seasonal averages and the warmest temperatures of the year so far. If possible limit intense outdoor activities to the morning or evening hours, and ensure that you stay hydrated with plenty of water. The primary change in the forecast over the last 24 hours is the introduction of isolated thunderstorm chances (15-20%) this afternoon and evening. Concerns remain regarding the ability of convection to overcome subsidence from an upper level ridge and limited low level moisture. However, CAM guidance has been consistent from run to run in generating isolated storms along a weak convergence zone near the Interstate 20 corridor and this has increased forecaster confidence. Where and if storms develop, downburst winds could become a concern. Forecast soundings for this afternoon have significant inverted V profiles below 700 mb and DCAPE values over 1000 J/kg, both of which are favorable for evaporative cooling and downbursts. Additional isolated thunderstorm activity is anticipated Sunday afternoon, when slightly higher surface dewpoints should compensate for high temperatures that are 1- 3 degrees lower than today. Albright && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 314 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Highlights: - Warm, above normal temperatures continue through the long term. - Isolated rain and thunder chances will be possible next week. Ridging and surface high pressure will be in place at the start of the long term period (Sunday night) and will influence the weather pattern through the majority of the period. On Monday, midlevel ridging becomes centered across the Eastern CONUS and surface high pressure will be offshore resulting in some moisture return. This will equate to continued above normal temperatures and dry conditions. Any rain and thunder chances remain a possibility next week but isolated in nature given building midlevel ridging aloft. While no severe weather is expected at this time, an isolated damaging wind gust cannot be ruled out with any storms that do form and quickly collapse. Latest guidance continues to indicate a slight uptick in PoPs towards next weekend as the influence of midlevel ridging becomes weaker and surface high pressure pushes further offshore. Forecast temperatures through the long term will be in the low to mid 90s aside from the the NE Georgia mountains where temperatures will be in the 80s. Forecast low temperatures will be in the upper 60s to low 70s. 07 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 634 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Aside from locations near thunderstorms between 20Z today and 02Z Sunday, VFR conditions (SKC-BKN AOA 5000 ft AGL and unrestricted visibility) area anticipated through at least 06Z Sunday. After 06Z Sunday there is a low chance (15% or less) for low clouds or fog in eastern Georgia. Winds will be modest (3 to 8 kt) today. Through 20Z a mix of northeast and southeast winds are expected. Then wind directions may become more variable. //ATL Confidence...12Z Update... Moderate overall confidence in the KATL TAF. High confidence in the wind speed and visibility forecasts. Low confidence in the wind direction forecast. Low confidence in the potential for thunderstorms between 20Z today and 02Z Sunday. Albright && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 72 92 71 90 / 20 20 10 10 Atlanta 75 94 74 92 / 20 20 10 10 Blairsville 68 86 67 85 / 10 20 20 30 Cartersville 73 94 73 93 / 20 20 10 10 Columbus 75 97 75 94 / 10 20 10 10 Gainesville 72 90 72 88 / 10 20 20 10 Macon 73 96 72 94 / 20 20 0 10 Rome 73 96 74 94 / 10 20 10 20 Peachtree City 73 95 72 93 / 20 20 10 0 Vidalia 74 96 73 93 / 10 20 0 10 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Albright LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...Albright