367
FXUS62 KFFC 221742
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
142 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024


...New 18Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 320 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Mid level high pressure continues across the far SE TX coast.
With the high in that position, N/NW flow aloft will persist
across much of GA through the period. At the surface, high
pressure at the surface will also persist through the short term.
Models do show a weakness in the ridging at the surface, almost
like a very weak lee trough. Not confident that this surface
feature is strong enough to focus any organized precip. However,
do think some convection is possible within the N/NW flow aloft.
Confidence is low on timing and coverage, so will keep isold/low
end chance for now. Temperatures will remain 5 to 15 degrees above
normal for Sunday and Monday.

NListemaa

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 320 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Monday night through Wednesday morning, the upper-level pattern
will transition from a ridge to a trough over the eastern CONUS.
At the surface, the SREF depicts a weak area of low pressure
across the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys. A weak cold front
associated with the surface low is progged to progress
southeastward and traverse at least a portion of the forecast area
around midweek. Increasing cloud cover will hinder surface-based
instability, and wind shear from the surface to 500 mb is expected
to be meager (possibly marginal at best) so the potential for
widespread severe weather remains low. PoPs will spread from far
north Georgia on Tuesday (15% to 35%) southward across the
remainder of the forecast area Wednesday and Thursday (35% to 45%).

The main question mark in the long-term period is what happens
with a broad area of low pressure likely to form over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea, Yucatan Peninsula, and central Gulf of
Mexico around midweek. Ensemble guidance is in agreement with the
low drifting generally northward over the northern Gulf and Gulf
Coast through the end of the week, but the finer-scale details are
murky 5 to 6 days out. The track of this low will likely depend
largely on how the aforementioned upper-level trough evolves over
the eastern CONUS (namely its position and southern extent) and
steers the low. Rainfall totals during the second half of the work
week and on Saturday will hinge on what transpires with this
system. Have increased rainfall totals from the previous forecast
package (which advertised 0.5" to 1.0") with this forecast package
advertising 1.5" to 2.5". This is in line with ensemble guidance
trends. Localized heavy rainfall and thus totals of several inches
will be possible should a tropical system develop and bring
rainbands across the area, but given the uncertainty, it is futile
to attempt to pin down where such rainfall maxima could occur.

Martin

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 134 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the period, with
FEW-SCT afternoon cu. Winds will be primarily W to NW at 5-8 kts
this afternoon, becoming light and variable after 02-03Z and
through the overnight hours.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
High confidence on all elements.

King

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          69  92  69  91 /  10  10  10  10
Atlanta         71  91  72  91 /  10  10  10  10
Blairsville     63  84  64  83 /  10  20  20  30
Cartersville    68  92  70  91 /   0  10  10  20
Columbus        71  94  72  92 /   0  10   0  10
Gainesville     69  90  70  89 /  10  10  10  20
Macon           71  93  72  93 /  10  10   0   0
Rome            68  92  68  91 /   0  20  10  20
Peachtree City  69  91  70  91 /  10  10  10  10
Vidalia         71  92  71  92 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....Martin
AVIATION...King