184
FXUS62 KFFC 270544
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
144 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024



...New 06Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 213 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

No major changes have been made to the forecast other than tweaks to
the wind forecast based on the latest NHC Helene track.

Hurricane Helene continues to intensify over the E Gulf of Mexico,
with expected landfall around the FL Big Bend area this evening.
Helene will be moving quickly N after she makes landfall, with a
potentially large area under the threat of hurricane or tropical
storm force winds overnight tonight into Friday morning.

The Predecessor Rain Event from Wednesday saturated soils across
much of the area, so additional rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches
across much of the area are likely. Locally higher amounts are
possible, particularly in the more persistent, training rain bands
and over the NE terrain. WPC has much of the area under a high
excessive rainfall risk. The area-wide Flood Watch remains in effect.

The risk of tornadoes continues, mainly along and to the E of
Helene`s path. We`ve already seen rotating cells over the SE corner
of the County Warning Area (CWA). That area is also closer to some
sizable breaks in the overcast across the JAX CWA and more unstable
air. However, even low CAPE values will support isolated tornadoes.
SPC issued a Tornado Watch earlier which remains valid until this
evening. We have opted to expand this watch a bit farther to the W.
Additional expansions are possible, followed by a possible new watch
later.

Preparations for strong winds and additional heavy rainfall should
be rushed to completion before sunset today!

/SEC

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday morning through next Wednesday)
Issued at 213 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Fortunately, much quieter conditions are expected next week in the
wake of Helene. Aside from ongoing flooding concerns on rivers and
larger waterways, only minimal PoPs are included in far north
Georgia around the lingering cutoff low through the weekend.

The remainder of the long term period next week currently looks dry.
The cutoff low finally lifts northeastward and weak northwest flow
aloft builds into the region before weak ridging builds eastward by
late week. Temperatures will be largely near seasonal averages.

RW

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 136 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

As Hurricane Helene continues to move into central and northern
Georgia conditions will remain very hazardous for aviation.
Widespread IFR/LIFR conditions will continue in the region through
13Z Friday. Then conditions will gradually improve from south to
north, with prevailing VFR/MVFR likely by 21Z Friday. Winds will
remain hazardous in the region through 16Z Friday, with gusts in
the 50 to 75 kt range possible. Winds should improve after 16Z,
though gusts in the 20 to 35 kt range may linger through 00Z
Saturday.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Moderate overall confidence in the KATL TAF.
The center of Helene remains south of ATL and confidence is high
that winds will continue to increase through 09Z. Moderate
confidence in gusts over 50 kt at ATL between 08Z and 13Z Friday.

Albright

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          62  79  63  79 /  10  10  10  10
Atlanta         63  77  63  78 /  10  10  10  10
Blairsville     58  68  59  72 /  30  50  30  40
Cartersville    63  77  61  78 /  20  20  10  10
Columbus        63  82  64  83 /   0  10   0  10
Gainesville     63  75  63  77 /  20  20  20  10
Macon           63  82  64  83 /   0   0   0   0
Rome            63  76  62  80 /  30  30  10  20
Peachtree City  61  78  61  79 /  10  10   0   0
Vidalia         65  85  67  86 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through this afternoon for GAZ001>009-011>016-
019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-089>098-102>113.

Tropical Storm Warning for GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-
030>039-041>055-057-060>062-066-067-073>076-078-085-086-098-112-
113.

Hurricane Warning for GAZ056-058-059-068>072-079>084-089>097-
102>111.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SEC
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...Albright