Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
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333 FXUS62 KFFC 220737 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 337 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 ...Morning Area Forecast Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 320 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Mid level high pressure continues across the far SE TX coast. With the high in that position, N/NW flow aloft will persist across much of GA through the period. At the surface, high pressure at the surface will also persist through the short term. Models do show a weakness in the ridging at the surface, almost like a very weak lee trough. Not confident that this surface feature is strong enough to focus any organized precip. However, do think some convection is possible within the N/NW flow aloft. Confidence is low on timing and coverage, so will keep isold/low end chance for now. Temperatures will remain 5 to 15 degrees above normal for Sunday and Monday. NListemaa && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 320 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Monday night through Wednesday morning, the upper-level pattern will transition from a ridge to a trough over the eastern CONUS. At the surface, the SREF depicts a weak area of low pressure across the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys. A weak cold front associated with the surface low is progged to progress southeastward and traverse at least a portion of the forecast area around midweek. Increasing cloud cover will hinder surface-based instability, and wind shear from the surface to 500 mb is expected to be meager (possibly marginal at best) so the potential for widespread severe weather remains low. PoPs will spread from far north Georgia on Tuesday (15% to 35%) southward across the remainder of the forecast area Wednesday and Thursday (35% to 45%). The main question mark in the long-term period is what happens with a broad area of low pressure likely to form over the northwestern Caribbean Sea, Yucatan Peninsula, and central Gulf of Mexico around midweek. Ensemble guidance is in agreement with the low drifting generally northward over the northern Gulf and Gulf Coast through the end of the week, but the finer-scale details are murky 5 to 6 days out. The track of this low will likely depend largely on how the aforementioned upper-level trough evolves over the eastern CONUS (namely its position and southern extent) and steers the low. Rainfall totals during the second half of the work week and on Saturday will hinge on what transpires with this system. Have increased rainfall totals from the previous forecast package (which advertised 0.5" to 1.0") with this forecast package advertising 1.5" to 2.5". This is in line with ensemble guidance trends. Localized heavy rainfall and thus totals of several inches will be possible should a tropical system develop and bring rainbands across the area, but given the uncertainty, it is futile to attempt to pin down where such rainfall maxima could occur. Martin && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 101 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 VFR through the period with few/sct afternoon cu. Winds will remain on the west side. //ATL Confidence...06Z Update... High confidence all elements. NListemaa && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 93 69 92 69 / 10 10 10 10 Atlanta 92 71 91 72 / 10 10 10 10 Blairsville 86 63 84 64 / 20 10 20 20 Cartersville 93 68 92 70 / 10 0 10 10 Columbus 93 71 94 72 / 0 0 10 0 Gainesville 91 69 90 70 / 10 10 10 10 Macon 93 71 93 72 / 0 10 10 0 Rome 93 68 92 68 / 10 0 20 10 Peachtree City 92 69 91 70 / 10 10 10 10 Vidalia 92 71 92 71 / 0 10 0 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...NListemaa LONG TERM....Martin AVIATION...NListemaa