391
FXUS62 KFFC 240747
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
347 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

...Morning Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 345 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

At a glance:

    - Unseasonable heat remains

    - Dry air continues to hamper more widespread rain chances

Showers and any lingering embedded thunderstorms associated with our
southeastward-advancing cold front fizzled out quickly upon meeting
our stout mid-level dry layer -- depicted well above 700mb on
yesterday evening`s 24/00Z sounding. Only portions of far northern
Georgia are likely to have received quantifiable rainfall, and even
then totals have been less than a quarter of an inch. Low-end (15-
30%) rain chances will continue to filter southeastward through the
afternoon today as lift along the leading edge of the front kicks up
an isolated updraft, but expect dry air to continue to win out on
the larger scale. All of this to say, the front and its associated
scant rain chances are unlikely to bring broader scale relief from
our multi-day heat event. Highs this afternoon look to be just a
tick lower than yesterday, but are still forecast to max out in the
mid-to-upper 90s.

Moving into Tuesday, frontal progression looks to stall out across
the Florida panhandle, and with even drier air overspreading north
and central Georgia on its heels, expect any chances for afternoon
thunderstorms to be focused to the south and east of Macon -- in
closest proximity to residual frontal forcing. Aloft, a relative
lull in our presiding wave pattern -- with exiting troughing
resulting in weakly northwesterly flow at the mid-levels -- which
will serve to reinforce mostly dry conditions. Unhampered warming
under mostly sunny skies will allow temperatures to rebound into the
upper-90s areawide (apart from northeast Georgia, relegated to the
mid-80s to near 90). What continues to be our saving grace will be
strong mixing and climatologically-low afternoon dewpoints (in the
upper-50s to lower-60s; between the 10th and 25th percentile per
SPC`s Sounding Climatology). As a result, peak afternoon heat index
values will continue to be within a degree or two of actual
temperatures, and perhaps even slightly "cooler" than actual highs
on Tuesday.

96

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 345 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

With a 500 mb ridge over much of the eastern CONUS and a weak
surface high centered to the north of Georgia, conditions will be
relatively dry to begin the long term period on Tuesday evening.
Temperatures will still be in the upper 80s to low 90s by 8-9 PM,
and will be slow to cool through the night, dropping below 80
degrees after midnight. By early Wednesday morning, a longwave
trough is expected to extend into the Mississippi River Valley and
move eastward towards Georgia over the course of the day. As low
level flow gains a southerly component ahead of the trough, some
moisture return will be possible, first in central Georgia, then
spreading northward. At the same time, Wednesday is shaping up to be
another scorcher, with high temperatures mainly in the upper 90s to
around 100. With increasing dewpoints in portions of east-central
Georgia, heat indices could reach to between 101-105 in this area,
with only slightly lower heat indices to the north and west.

Latest mid-range guidance is coming into better agreement on the
timing at which the aforementioned trough and an associated surface
frontal boundary will advance towards the area. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms ahead of the front are anticipated to spread into
north Georgia by late Wednesday, while scattered diurnally-driven
thunderstorms will meanwhile likely be ongoing in central Georgia.
Precip chances will spread southeastward overnight and into Thursday
as the weakening frontal boundary sinks southward through the
forecast area. The front is then anticipated to clear the forecast
area to the southeast by late Thursday night. Southerly low-level
flow will likely return to the area Friday into Saturday, which will
promote increasing dewpoints, hot temperatures, and afternoon
thunderstorms through the weekend.

It will be important to keep an eye on temperatures through the
later parts of the week into the weekend. Even with trending high
temperatures down slightly to account for convective development,
highs are still forecast to range from between 4-8 degrees above
average for late June. Highs are mainly forecast to be in the mid to
upper 90s from Thursday through the end of the period, and heat
indices are forecast to creep up into the triple digits in many
locations, particularly in the southern half of the forecast
area.

King

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 129 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

VFR conditions to continue. Patchy line of isold -SHRA will pass
over northern terminals from 08-11Z. Coverage and associated
impacts will be low. FEW-SCT cigs at 5-8kft this morning will
gradually clear through the afternoon. Winds initially out of the
W/WSW at 5-7kts will shift to the NW by 12, increasing to 9-12kts
with low-end gusts through the afternoon. Expect a shift to the E
side after 06Z Tuesday.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Medium confidence -SHRA impacts to airfield.
High confidence all elements.

96

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          97  69  96  70 /  10   0  10  10
Atlanta         96  72  98  74 /  10   0   0   0
Blairsville     87  61  90  66 /   0   0   0   0
Cartersville    95  65  96  70 /  10   0   0   0
Columbus        98  73 101  74 /  30   0  10  10
Gainesville     94  69  94  72 /  10   0   0   0
Macon           99  71 100  72 /  20   0  10  10
Rome            96  67  98  71 /   0   0   0   0
Peachtree City  97  69  98  71 /  10   0   0   0
Vidalia         98  74 100  75 /  20  10  30  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...96
LONG TERM....King
AVIATION...96