616
FXUS62 KFFC 230547
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
147 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024



...New 06Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 253 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Relatively uneventful but hot conditions will prevail through the
bulk of the short term forecast period. The former Invest 92L is now
spiraling inland near Savannah but has brought very little in the
way of sensible impact to the area other than some increased cloud
cover to southeastern portions of the area. A stout dry layer in the
mid and upper levels has largely put the kibosh on any convection in
the vicinity of this feature so far this afternoon. PoPs were thus
lowered for the remainder of the day in southeastern counties,
though an isolated shower or thunderstorm will remain possible over
the next few hours.

The main story on Sunday will be the building heat courtesy of the
persistent strong midlevel ridge sprawled across the southern US.
Though it will begin retrograding a bit further on Sunday as a
trough begins to dig from the Great Lakes into the Northeast US,
high temperatures will warm a few degrees as compared to today. As
such, highs in the upper 90s are anticipated for the bulk of the CWA
outside of the mountains. Sufficient mixing will keep afternoon
dewpoints in check and thus keep heat index values below Heat
Advisory criteria. Still, heat index values in the upper 90s to as
high as 101-102 in east central Georgia will make for a hot
afternoon.

By Sunday night, the aforementioned trough swinging into the
Northeast will nudge a very weak cold front into north Georgia. A
few showers and thunderstorms could develop in association with this
front as it pushes southward overnight, but coverage should be
fairly limited.

RW

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday morning through next Friday)
Issued at 253 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Biggest changes to the long term forecast package come on Monday.
With our current tropical low stalling out more near the coastline,
less moisture looks to be available across the CWA. Upper levels
remain pretty dry. Overall rain chances have come down a bit. Front
is still expected to move towards the area and provide some
increased afternoon Tstorm chances, but hires guidance that has come
into range is not that excited about coverage, with HREF PMM
guidance showing some limited rainfall streaks.

Beyond that, the heat continues to be the main story. Front won`t
provide for much if any relief. It`s definitely going to be hot,
with temperatures in the upper 90s through at least Wednesday. The
question remains just how hot. GFS and other guidance continues to
show blistering temps, but a look at the forecast sounding reveals
some concerns. Models may be really over mixing, a bias we have
seen in the past and that has played out already in some other
locations this year. Diurnal convection may also have something to
say, which would keep temps in line as well if we hit convective
Ts, which is still possible. Have continued to blend a little NBM
10th percentile into the max T forecast to keep things a touch
lower than raw NBM values. Either way, overnight temps in the mid
to upper 70s will provide for little relief from the heat, and max
temps approaching 100 will still mean apparent Ts near 105 or
higher.

After this, trough is expected to move through the area and provide
some relief (hopefully). Still uncertainty around timing, but
overall it looks like we should get some rainfall, which is much
needed given many areas have 30 day averages that are below 25% of
normal.

Lusk

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 137 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Primarily VFR conds to continue thru the TAF pd. FEW-SCT cu at
5-8kft to develop between 15-17Z. Winds initially light (5kts or
less) out of the SE/ESE will shift to the SW by 09-10Z, and then
to the W/WNW by 13-14Z at 6-9kts. Low-end gusts to 12-15kts are
psbl this aftn. Late period, low-end chcs for isold -SHRA and
low-VFR to MVFR cigs at northern TAF sites from 08-12Z Monday.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Medium confidence precipitation chances and timing.
High confidence all other elements.

96

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          74  97  72  97 /  20  10  10  20
Atlanta         78  96  76  98 /  30  10  10  30
Blairsville     69  89  65  90 /  30  10  10  30
Cartersville    73  96  71  98 /  30  10  10  30
Columbus        76  97  76 101 /  10  30  10  40
Gainesville     76  94  73  95 /  20  10  10  20
Macon           75  98  74 101 /  10  20  10  30
Rome            74  97  72  99 /  40  10  10  30
Peachtree City  75  97  73  99 /  30  20  10  30
Vidalia         77  98  77 100 /   0  30  20  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....Lusk
AVIATION...96