Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
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979 FXUS62 KFFC 150717 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 317 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 ...Morning Area Forecast Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 314 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 - The warmest temperatures of the year so far are expected this afternoon. - Isolated thunderstorms are possible in the region this afternoon and Sunday afternoon. Today and Sunday: Heat remains the primary forecast concern this weekend. Widespread high temperatures in the upper 90s are forecast today, then a mix of mid and upper 90s are anticipated on Sunday. A few areas could tip over the triple digit threshold this afternoon along a line from Columbus to Macon, where NBM guidance suggests 10-25 percent chances of reaching 100 degrees. These would be the first 100 degree readings of the year in central Georgia should they occur. As noted yesterday, relatively low humidity values (30 to 45 percent) should keep peak heat indices in the 98 to 104 degree range today and Sunday. Given that the threshold for a Heat Advisory is a heat index of at least 105 degrees, we do not anticipate issuing any heat related products this weekend. Caution should still be exercised by anyone with outdoor activities planned as these temperatures will be 6 to 12 degrees above seasonal averages and the warmest temperatures of the year so far. If possible limit intense outdoor activities to the morning or evening hours, and ensure that you stay hydrated with plenty of water. The primary change in the forecast over the last 24 hours is the introduction of isolated thunderstorm chances (15-20%) this afternoon and evening. Concerns remain regarding the ability of convection to overcome subsidence from an upper level ridge and limited low level moisture. However, CAM guidance has been consistent from run to run in generating isolated storms along a weak convergence zone near the Interstate 20 corridor and this has increased forecaster confidence. Where and if storms develop, downburst winds could become a concern. Forecast soundings for this afternoon have significant inverted V profiles below 700 mb and DCAPE values over 1000 J/kg, both of which are favorable for evaporative cooling and downbursts. Additional isolated thunderstorm activity is anticipated Sunday afternoon, when slightly higher surface dewpoints should compensate for high temperatures that are 1- 3 degrees lower than today. Albright && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 314 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Highlights: -Warm, above normal temperatures continue through the long term. -Isolated rain and thunder chances will be possible next week. Ridging and surface high pressure will be in place at the start of the long term period (Sunday night) and will influence the weather pattern through the majority of the period. On Monday, midlevel ridging becomes centered across the Eastern CONUS and surface high pressure will be offshore resulting in some moisture return. This will equate to continued above normal temperatures and dry conditions. Any rain and thunder chances remain a possibility next week but isolated in nature given building midlevel ridging aloft. While no severe weather is expected at this time, an isolated damaging wind gust cannot be ruled out with any storms that do form and quickly collapse. Latest guidance continues to indicate a slight uptick in PoPs towards next weekend as the influence of midlevel ridging becomes weaker and surface high pressure pushes further offshore. Forecast temperatures through the long term will be in the low to mid 90s aside from the the NE Georgia mountains where temperatures will be in the 80s. Forecast low temperatures will be in the upper 60s to low 70s. 07 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 130 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 VFR conditions (SKC-BKN AOA 5000 ft AGL and unrestricted visibility) will continue for the majority of the region through 06Z Sunday. The exceptions may occur between 20Z today and 02Z Sunday when isolated thunderstorms could reduce ceilings or visibilities. Winds will be light (generally less than 6 kt) across central and northern Georgia today. A weak trend towards northeast winds may occur for the Atlanta metro TAF sites after 16Z, though any storms may result in a shift to variable winds this afternoon. //ATL Confidence...06Z Update... Overall confidence in the KATL TAF is moderate. High confidence in the visibility and ceiling forecasts. High confidence in wind speeds, but low confidence in direction. Moderate confidence in the precipitation outlook between 20Z and 02Z. Albright && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 95 72 92 71 / 20 20 20 10 Atlanta 97 75 94 74 / 20 20 20 10 Blairsville 90 68 86 67 / 20 10 20 20 Cartersville 96 73 94 73 / 20 20 20 10 Columbus 98 75 97 75 / 10 10 20 10 Gainesville 94 72 90 72 / 20 10 20 20 Macon 98 73 96 72 / 20 20 20 0 Rome 98 73 96 74 / 20 10 20 10 Peachtree City 98 73 95 72 / 20 20 20 10 Vidalia 99 74 96 73 / 10 10 20 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Albright LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...Albright