979
FXUS62 KFFC 150717
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
317 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

...Morning Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 314 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

 - The warmest temperatures of the year so far are expected this
afternoon.

 - Isolated thunderstorms are possible in the region this afternoon
and Sunday afternoon.


Today and Sunday:

Heat remains the primary forecast concern this weekend. Widespread
high temperatures in the upper 90s are forecast today, then a mix of
mid and upper 90s are anticipated on Sunday. A few areas could tip
over the triple digit threshold this afternoon along a line from
Columbus to Macon, where NBM guidance suggests 10-25 percent chances
of reaching 100 degrees. These would be the first 100 degree
readings of the year in central Georgia should they occur. As noted
yesterday, relatively low humidity values (30 to 45 percent) should
keep peak heat indices in the 98 to 104 degree range today and
Sunday. Given that the threshold for a Heat Advisory is a heat index
of at least 105 degrees, we do not anticipate issuing any heat
related products this weekend. Caution should still be exercised by
anyone with outdoor activities planned as these temperatures will be
6 to 12 degrees above seasonal averages and the warmest temperatures
of the year so far. If possible limit intense outdoor activities to
the morning or evening hours, and ensure that you stay hydrated with
plenty of water.

The primary change in the forecast over the last 24 hours is the
introduction of isolated thunderstorm chances (15-20%) this
afternoon and evening. Concerns remain regarding the ability of
convection to overcome subsidence from an upper level ridge and
limited low level moisture. However, CAM guidance has been
consistent from run to run in generating isolated storms along a
weak convergence zone near the Interstate 20 corridor and this has
increased forecaster confidence. Where and if storms develop,
downburst winds could become a concern. Forecast soundings for this
afternoon have significant inverted V profiles below 700 mb and
DCAPE values over 1000 J/kg, both of which are favorable for
evaporative cooling and downbursts. Additional isolated thunderstorm
activity is anticipated Sunday afternoon, when slightly higher
surface dewpoints should compensate for high temperatures that are 1-
3 degrees lower than today.

Albright

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 314 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Highlights:

-Warm, above normal temperatures continue through the long term.

-Isolated rain and thunder chances will be possible next week.

Ridging and surface high pressure will be in place at the start of
the long term period (Sunday night) and will influence the weather
pattern through the majority of the period. On Monday, midlevel
ridging becomes centered across the Eastern CONUS and surface high
pressure will be offshore resulting in some moisture return. This
will equate to continued above normal temperatures and dry
conditions. Any rain and thunder chances remain a possibility next
week but isolated in nature given building midlevel ridging aloft.
While no severe weather is expected at this time, an isolated
damaging wind gust cannot be ruled out with any storms that do form
and quickly collapse. Latest guidance continues to indicate a slight
uptick in PoPs towards next weekend as the influence of midlevel
ridging becomes weaker and surface high pressure pushes further
offshore. Forecast temperatures through the long term will be in
the low to mid 90s aside from the the NE Georgia mountains where
temperatures will be in the 80s. Forecast low temperatures will be
in the upper 60s to low 70s.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 130 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

VFR conditions (SKC-BKN AOA 5000 ft AGL and unrestricted
visibility) will continue for the majority of the region through
06Z Sunday. The exceptions may occur between 20Z today and 02Z
Sunday when isolated thunderstorms could reduce ceilings or
visibilities. Winds will be light (generally less than 6 kt)
across central and northern Georgia today. A weak trend towards
northeast winds may occur for the Atlanta metro TAF sites after
16Z, though any storms may result in a shift to variable winds
this afternoon.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Overall confidence in the KATL TAF is moderate.
High confidence in the visibility and ceiling forecasts.
High confidence in wind speeds, but low confidence in direction.
Moderate confidence in the precipitation outlook between 20Z and
02Z.

Albright

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          95  72  92  71 /  20  20  20  10
Atlanta         97  75  94  74 /  20  20  20  10
Blairsville     90  68  86  67 /  20  10  20  20
Cartersville    96  73  94  73 /  20  20  20  10
Columbus        98  75  97  75 /  10  10  20  10
Gainesville     94  72  90  72 /  20  10  20  20
Macon           98  73  96  72 /  20  20  20   0
Rome            98  73  96  74 /  20  10  20  10
Peachtree City  98  73  95  72 /  20  20  20  10
Vidalia         99  74  96  73 /  10  10  20   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Albright
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...Albright