Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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583 FXUS63 KFGF 190857 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 357 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe storms this evening across the area, and a level 2 out of 5 risk for far southern portions of the valley. Main impacts would be hail up to ping pongs, winds to 60mph, and possible tornadoes. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 357 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 ...Synopsis... An occluded upper low pushes off to the northeast into the Manitoba province today. As the departing low moves northeast it leaves an area of divergence to possibly produce showers along the Canadian border. Another shortwave creates more precipitation chances through the Sunday morning. Today: The departing low occludes as it starts to push northeast. This will push the front closer to the arrowhead and leave North Dakota fairly stable behind this front. However, there is a pocket of moisture in the northern valley that may create some light showers this afternoon and evening thanks to the overlapping area of divergence near the Canadian border as this low pressure peels off. These showers should dissipate as the sun goes down and sets for the day. The pressure gradient will just be tight enough to give us some gusty winds up to 30 mph if we mix up to the 925/850mb level tapping into those 25 knot winds. Friday and through the weekend: A brief period of drying will occur during the day Friday. The atmosphere will remain fairly stable as the Northern Plains enters a brief dry westerly flow. However, another shortwave starts to move in early Saturday morning and give us precipitation for Saturday with the most likely area being West central Minnesota. rainfall amounts currently look light but that could change slightly for better or worse in the next models runs as the amount of dry air from Friday`s westerly pattern is better analyzed. Sunday and Monday look dry as the Northern plains transition between a Northern and Westerly flow thanks to a low pressure system travels through the Central US. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1122 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Isolated thunderstorm chances will be possible in BJI through 08-09z as a boundary shifts east of the area. Otherwise, LLWS will be possible for all TAF locations overnight as a low level jet sets up aloft. Winds will be breezy overnight, with sustained winds 10-15kts. Winds increase tomorrow mid morning through the early evening, with gusts reaching 30kts for areas along and west of the valley. Another chance for precipitation tomorrow afternoon for DVL, with isolated chance for thunderstorms. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MM AVIATION...Spender