421
FXUS63 KFGF 251812
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
112 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The probability for weather impacts in the next 7 days is low.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Currently, the skies remain clear. The entire CWA and even the
entire region remains cloud free, which is neat.

Morning guidance reveals even more potential to mix during the
day tomorrow, contributing to gusts around 40 mph out of the
south and low RH into the 20-30s percent. This introduces
messaging of near critical fire weather conditions tomorrow
during the day. Fuels are not quite to a level where there is
widespread susceptibility to fire spread/energy release; however
recent dry conditions, particularly in southeast ND and west-
central MN, is helping cure fine fuels like grasses and small
brush.

Otherwise, previous thoughts still remain valid.

UPDATE
Issued at 1025 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Mostly clear skies dominate the Northern Plains and Upper
Midwest underneath large upper ridging over the western two
thirds of the CONUS.

Upper ridging, surface high pressure, and relatively dry air
mass will continue mostly cloudy skies and lighter winds, while
allowing temperatures to reach well above average into the 80s.

UPDATE Issued at 618 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Forecast remains on track this morning, with temperatures
hovering in the low to mid 40s for northwestern MN and 50s in
eastern ND. Patchy fog remains possible in lakes country through
mid morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 338 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Upper level ridging continues to dominate the weather pattern across
the Dakotas and Minnesota this week. The amplification of the ridge
keeps the shortwaves north of the border, but brings the chance for
breezy conditions as LLJ`s have the potential to develop ahead of
those shortwaves. Precipitation also remains north of the
International Border during this time keeping conditions dry, with
low relative humidity values. Change of flow is anticipated as we
get into the end of the weekend and early next week, with
precipitation chances increasing and temperatures cooling.

Current satellite has a few clouds lingering across the region, with
light and variable winds. A observations in lakes county have patchy
ground fog developing as dew point depression reach zero, skies are
clear, and the winds are light and variable. This continues through
the mid morning. Skies remain mostly sunny today, with temperatures
reaching 10-15 degrees above normal as highs hit the upper 70s to
mid 80s. RH values drop to the mid 30s in the southern Red River
Valley during the afternoon and early evening hours, but winds
remain below 15mph limiting any fire weather concerns.

A LLJ starts to develop Thursday afternoon, with 925mb winds in
eastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota reaching 35-40kts.
Lapse rates of 8-9.5 C/km through the 925mb level would allow for
breezy conditions in the afternoon and evening hours Thursday.
Probabilities of seeing wind gusts 35kts or higher are 60% for
eastern North Dakota and 30-40% for the Red River Valley.
Probabilities of seeing advisory level winds are 20% for the Devils
Lake Basin. RH values during this time are in the low to mid 30s for
southeastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota, with the mid
30s in the Devils Lake Basin through northeastern North Dakota. Fire
weather is worth monitoring, but not a concern as of right now.

Continued warm conditions are expected end of the work week and into
the weekend, with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Dry conditions
are expected during this time, with RH values ranging from the mid
30s to lower 40s. Next chance for precipitation comes early next
week as the ridge breaks down.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

VFR conditions are confidently in the forecast throughout the
TAF period. Upper ridging and surface high pressure will keep
skies mostly clear today through tomorrow. Despite calm winds
and clear skies in Minnesota, the chance for fog is very low due
to such dry air mass in place.

Increasing pressure gradient from the west will increase winds
out of the south Thursday as early as sunrise Thursday, peaking
during the afternoon with gusts 25-35kt in the forecast
Thursday afternoon.

Prior to increasing surface winds Thursday will be high
confidence in LLWS over eastern North Dakota tonight starting
between 00-03Z. Maximum winds will be around 40 kt at around
1kft above ground level. Included this in the DVL TAF, which may
linger as late as 15Z as the boundary layer just starts to mix
in the morning. Confidence decreases how far east LLWS gets,
which brings a low chance LLWS impacts KGFK and KFAR tonight.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CJ/Spender
DISCUSSION...Spender
AVIATION...CJ