Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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806 FXUS63 KFGF 192036 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 336 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - The probability for weather impacts is low over the next 7 days. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 336 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 ...Synopsis... A mid/upper low is centered over southern Manitoba, with drier BL conditions and cooler temperatures aloft already in place behind a cold front (now to the east). Diurnal showers/sprinkles are still rotating into northeast ND at the base of this upper low due to the cold pool/low level lapse rates, but should quickly dissipate with sunset/decoupling in the low levels. Weak shortwave ridging should transition over the Northern Plains Friday with another mid/upper low passing thorugh southern Canada Friday night into Saturday. The associated cold front as trough passage is shown to support a period of showers late Friday evening into Saturday morning, with a chance for light rain across the region. Impacts should be minimal with the probability for greater than 0.1" less than 20% most locations. Seasonably mild/cooler temperatures then persist into the majority of next week. Drier air and less favorable storm tracks then limit any potential for precipitation (very weak signal on Tuesday). A trend towards ridging is favored in ensembles by the end of the week, which should result in increasing temperatures to above average once again (70s to near 80). ...Winds Saturday Afternoon.... Stronger CAA behind the front may bring a period of windy conditions during the afternoon Saturday. There is a low chance (less than 5%) for advisory winds behind the front. Deterministic GFS sounding mixing heights are deeper and show some gusts in the 45 mph range, but ensembles and other model soundings are not supportive at this time. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1257 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 CU is forming behind the cold front that has already pushed through northwest MN (east of KBJI) ranging from 2800-6000 FT agl, with VFR generally prevailing. There may still be brief dips into MVFR (mainly at KDVL) through the afternoon, but this shouldn`t prevail. Light showers are developing upstream of KDVL in northwest ND on the base of the mid level low in Canada and guidance supports VCSH mention at that TAF site during the afternoon (lower confidence at other eastern ND/northwest MN sites). Gusty winds are expected in the afternoon, with gusts ending at sunset (loss of daytime mixing). && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DJR AVIATION...DJR