889
FXUS63 KFGF 230829
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
329 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Less than 20% chance for patchy frost in west central and
  northern Minnesota this morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 328 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

...Synopsis...

Large area of cloud cover continues to translate through North
Dakota and Minnesota this morning. Areas that saw clearing earlier
this morning have had temperatures drop to the upper 30s, but as
soon as cloud cover moved in temperatures start to rebound into the
40s. These clouds are ahead of an approaching shortwave moving in
from Canada. Northwesterly flow continues across the region through
Tuesday, with the introduction of a short wave moving through this
afternoon and into Tuesday morning. Post Tuesday, a ridge begins to
build into the area increasing temperatures and drying conditions
out for the week.

...Patchy Frost...

Areas that are experiencing clearing this morning have had
temperatures drop down into the upper 30s. These ares are located in
a corridor from Beltrami county through Wadena county. Current
observations have these areas hovering in the upper 30s, with the
potential for isolated locations dropping into the mid 30s. These
areas could see patchy frost this morning but confidence is low as
clouds are moving into these areas helping to rebound temperatures.
We are already starting to see this in Bemidji, where temperatures
have already jumped up into the mid 40s this morning. None the less
there is still a less than 20% chance a few isolated spots see
patchy frost this morning in west central and northern Minnesota.

As we progress through Monday a shortwave moves down from Canada
bringing scattered showers to the area this afternoon through
Tuesday morning. The main instability axis remains west of the area,
with less than 250 J/kg of MUCAPE in the Devils Lake Basin. This
means any thunderstorm chance will be little to none for the area
this afternoon through Tuesday morning. Probabilities of seeing
higher than 0.10 inches of QPF are 40-50% for the Devils Lake Basin
and 20-40% for the Red River Valley. Anything over 0.30 inches is
less than 10% for the region.

Conditions begin to dry out Tuesday afternoon and evening, with
temperatures reaching into the lower 70s. Ridge starts to build into
the region mid week and into the end of the week, with temperatures
climbing into the upper 70s to lower 80s. Conditions will remain dry
as the ridge refuses to move eastward. Confidence is increasing that
by the end of the following weekend and into the first week of
October we start to see a breakdown of the ridge leading to a cool
down in temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

VFR conditions should prevail through the TAF period across
eastern ND and northwest MN. There is still a window for
patchy fog development in west central MN through sunrise, but
there are no indications in guidance of this at this time
(KBJI would be the one TAF site we will monitor based on surface
high position where light winds should persist).

Southerly winds increase above 12kt during the late
morning/daytime period Monday as pressure gradient strengthens
ahead of the approaching low pressure and associated front
(gusts 20-25kt most common in eastern ND). This system is shown
to bring chances for high based light showers (30-40% chance),
with better chances at KDVL Monday evening (less confidence
east).

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Spender
AVIATION...DJR