840
FXUS63 KFGF 240842
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
342 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The probability for weather impacts in the next 7 days is low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

...Synopsis...

An upper level trough moves through the Northern Plains and
dives southeast into the central plains and then moving into the
Appalachian territories. This creates an amplified ridging
pattern over the Northern Plains for the remainder of the week
giving us above average temperatures starting Wednesday.

The upper level trough departs today and starts to dive southeast
through Minnesota and cuts off from the flow over the Central
Plains. This creates a blocking pattern for the US and leaves the
Northern Plains in an amplified ridging pattern. Starting Wednesday,
warm temperatures will start to advect into the region giving us
above normal temperatures. With the area of high pressure over us
(the amplified ridge)we will likely get pretty cool at night due to
clearer skies and efficient cooling. However, looking at the
ensembles dewpoint dont look to get cold enough for frost
development. With the cutoff Low to our southeast our moisture feed
that common with a ridging pattern will probably be disrupted
leaving us pretty dry for the next few days. With the potential for
some breezy winds, fire weather concerns will be something to
monitoring for the rest of the week. Especially since the models
already have the RH values in the 30`s and 40`s through Friday.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1011 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Winds will shift to westerly overnight, and eventually
northwesterly as the morning continues Tuesday. Winds will be on
the lighter side, around 10 knots or less, and ceilings will
remain in VFR territory, with the exception of a period around
BJI this morning (12 - 15z). Winds will drop to light and
variable into early Wednesday morning.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MM
AVIATION...AH