388
FXUS63 KFGF 231942
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
242 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The probability for weather impacts in the next 7 days is low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Upper trough digging into the Dakotas this afternoon will
continue into MN tonight, eventually amplifying over the upper
midwest tomorrow. The passage of the surface trough axis this
afternoon and evening will bring a few rain showers, with radar
returns already over eastern and central ND. MU CAPE is less
than 250 J/kg so even any thunder is unlikely, and there is no
shear to speak of. The only reports have been a few hundredths
of an inch of rain, so impacts are very minimal as the trough
swings through this evening and skies begin to clear out later
tonight.

Upper ridging over the Rockies will begin to move eastward into
the Plains by mid-weak, eventually setting up a blocking pattern
with high heights across the Plains into the Great Lakes, jet
over Canada, and cut off low well to our south. This pattern
will keep it dry and temperatures will return to well above late
September averages. Could push above the 80 mark again in some
spots, but will depend on clouds and exactly how much the ridge
builds over the central CONUS. Next chance for precipitation
will be when the blocking pattern breaks down and the next upper
trough starts to move into the Dakotas on Monday. However,
fairly high uncertainty in the details as the ridge breaks down
will hold off on any messaging for now.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

VFR conditions now and throughout the period with some scattered
showers moving in later this evening. Have mostly VCSH and no
vis impacts on the airports at this point as it seems rain is
very light. Winds will shift from a breezy southerly direction
this afternoon to a more southwesterly to westerly direction
overnight, then northwesterly at least on the ND side of the Red
River by the end of the period.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...JR