849
FXUS65 KFGZ 241116
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
416 AM MST Tue Sep 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Unseasonably warm temperatures and dry conditions
will continue through the week. Slightly cooler temperatures and
breezy winds arrive towards the end of the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The weather story of the week will be the dominant
high pressure that builds across the desert southwest. This will
bring warming temperatures and dry conditions to the region. Daytime
highs will be around 5-15 degrees above normal through the weekend,
though some slight cooling is expected by the weekend. Winds will
generally be light through the period with easterly winds today
before a shift to the south to southwest on Wednesday. Models are
trying to show a shortwave trough moving into California over the
weekend but the high might be just a bit too strong to allow for it
to have much influence across our forecast area. If anything, we may
see the winds increase some late in the weekend as there is little
to no moisture available for us to tap into which will keep us dry.

Item of note: the warm temperatures are more reminiscent of July
temperatures over what we expect for late September. As a result, we
may near or even break some of the daily maximum temperature records
so definitely something to keep an eye on, especially as we head
into the later part of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...Tuesday 24/12Z through Wednesday 25/12Z...VFR
conditions are expected through the TAF period. Light and variable
winds expected through at least 18Z, minus the KSEZ terminal where
gusty NE winds will persist through the early morning hours. E-NE
winds 5-15 kts expected Tuesday afternoon, becoming light after
02Z.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 25/12Z through Friday 27/12Z...VFR conditions
will continue through the outlook period. Winds will generally be
10 kts or less, varying in direction.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Wednesday...Above normal temperatures and
dry conditions will continue each day. Minimum RH values will range
between 10-25%. Expect winds varying in direction 5-15 mph this
afternoon, becoming more southerly on Wednesday.

Thursday through Saturday...Afternoon highs 5-15 degrees above
normal will continue through the weekend. Winds will generally be
light and variable each day, along with minimum RH values between 10-
25%.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Meola
AVIATION...Konieczny
FIRE WEATHER...Konieczny

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff