899
FXUS65 KFGZ 292337
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
437 PM MST Wed May 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Dry, warm conditions along with reoccurring afternoon
breezes out of the west to southwest each day into next week.
Today and this weekend will see slightly stronger gusts compared
to Thursday and Friday. Regardless, the uptick in wind will have
minimal impacts.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A pattern of broad high pressure remains in place
despite the efforts of a trough well to our north. This trough is
limiting the amplitude of the upper-level ridge and is tightening
pressure gradients just enough to increase west to southwest winds
today. Gusts of 20 to 25 mph continue this afternoon with peak
gusts near to just above 30 mph. Once the trough has progressed
eastward tomorrow, a return of zonal flow is expected. Dry, mostly
sunny, and warm conditions persist with afternoon temperatures a
few to 5 degrees above average the next several days. Southwest
winds will be 5 to 15 mph with some typical afternoon breezes.

The Weekend Onward...Models show synoptic competition returning
between a weak ridge with its axis near to just east of Arizona
and a weak trough to our west. This will help elevate winds
marginally Saturday and Sunday. Southwest winds will gust in the
15 to 25 mph range with stronger gusts for a few localized areas.
Once again, with weak gradients and little fluctuation in
pressure heights, you won`t feel a whole lot of change in the
weather outside subtle changes in the wind. Models do project a
stronger ridge building with higher heights and better amplitude
next week, which could lead to a climb in temperatures towards the
middle of next week. Additionally, a feeble low to our west could
push some moisture into the area. However, the most likely result
being increased cloudiness. More to follow as models work to get
a better handle on our future pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...Thursday 30/00Z through Friday 31/00Z...VFR
conditions will persist. Look for southwest winds at 5-15 kts
gusting to 25 kts diminishing to less than 10 kts after 02Z.
Expect lighter winds from more variable wind directions on
Thursday.

OUTLOOK...Friday 31/00Z through Sunday 02/00Z...VFR conditions
will continue. Light afternoon southwest winds generally less
than 15 kts on Friday will gust between 20-30 kts on Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Thursday and Friday...Dry and warm weather will
continue with southwest winds at 5-15 mph both days. Afternoon RH
values of 5-15% with overnight recoveries of 25-45%.

Saturday through Monday...Look for warm and dry weather. Southwest
winds each day at 5-15 mph gusting to 25 mph. Afternoon RH values of
5-15% with overnight recovery ranging from 20-40%.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Mazon
AVIATION...RR
FIRE WEATHER...McCollum

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff