774
FXUS65 KFGZ 141009
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
309 AM MST Tue May 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected each afternoon through Thursday. Drier and warmer
conditions return Friday through the weekend with winds increasing
as well.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Quiet weather early this morning around northern
Arizona. We are under weak flow aloft between a cutoff low near
San Diego and an upper trough diving southeastward through the
northern Rockies. There was enough moisture around on Monday
afternoon for widely scattered mainly light showers and a couple
thunderstorms during peak heating. Expect similar activity again
this afternoon, with just a slight increase in coverage as mid
level temperatures cool a bit with the approach of the low to our
west. With meager surface moisture and high cloud bases, we will
continue to have a threat of 30-40 mph outflow wind gusts from the
shower activity. Otherwise, high temperatures will be a few
degrees above normal.

Wednesday and Thursday - we anticipate an increase in shower and
thunderstorm coverage on Wednesday as moisture values come up
slightly, and the northern stream trough picks up the cutoff low
over the state. Rain chances are now 40-50% over the high country
above 6000 feet and 20-30% for the lower elevations. Most areas
will still see only light rainfall amounts of 0.10" or less, with
a few lucky spots receiving 0.25"+ in a heavier shower or
thunderstorm. Outflow wind gusts to near 40 mph will still be
possible as the low levels are not overly moist. As the northern
trough dives south across far eastern AZ and New Mexico Wednesday
night, the chance of showers will persist through the overnight
hours into Thursday morning from around Flagstaff eastward. By
Thursday afternoon, the trough is forecast to move well into New
Mexico, with drier air pushing southward in its wake from the
Mogollon Rim northward. Enough moisture will still be present
along the rim, White Mountains and northern Gila County for
another round of scattered showers and a few thunderstorms
Thursday afternoon before drier air spreads into those areas as
well by Thursday night.

Friday through Monday - ridging builds over the state Friday and
Saturday with some of the warmest temperatures so far this spring
on the way. Looking at mid 70s in the mountains including
Flagstaff, mid 80s in Prescott/Payson, and mid 90s for the Verde
Valley. There is increased model spread as we get to Sunday and
Monday regarding the next trough approaching from the west.
Although it will likely remain dry in any scenario, the movement
of the trough will determine how windy it gets Sunday and Monday.
Right now, we have Monday as the windiest day with SW wind 15-25
mph gusting 30-40 mph but this could be pushed back to Sunday if
the trough arrives sooner.

&&

.AVIATION...Tuesday 14/06Z through Wednesday 15/06Z...Mainly VFR
conditions expected. Light and variable winds overnight will
becoming southwest to west at 5-15 kts Tuesday afternoon. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms will start up again after 17Z mainly over
the higher terrain. locally gusty winds near any showers/thunderstorms.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 15/06Z through Friday 17/06Z...Mainly VFR
conditions expected. Afternoon southwest to west winds 5-15 kts
gusting to 20-25 kts. Scattered afternoon showers/thunderstorms
mainly over the higher terrain Wednesday will become isolated on
Thursday. Locally gusty winds near any showers/storms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today through Wednesday...Isolated to scattered
afternoon showers and a few high-based thunderstorms, mainly
confined to the higher elevations. Greatest precipitations chances
are on Wednesday. West to southwest winds at 5-15 mph gusting 20-25
mph each afternoon, with locally higher gusts near storms. Warm
temperatures with minimum RH between 10-25% each day.

Thursday through Saturday...Shower and thunderstorm chances
continue, decreasing each day through the end of the week. Westerly
winds around 5-15 mph gusting 20-25 mph, increasing to 25-30 mph on
Saturday. Minimum RH values 15-30% on Thursday, dropping to 10-20%
for Friday and Saturday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...McCollum
FIRE WEATHER...MAS

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff