732
FXUS65 KFGZ 241854
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1154 AM MST Tue Sep 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure over Arizona will keep unseasonably
warm temperatures and dry conditions in place through the end of
the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today through Thursday...High pressure will continue
to wobble around the southwest through pretty much the entire
forecast period. As a result, dry conditions with well above-
normal temperatures are expected to continue. Another night of
gusty northeasterly winds is expected downwind of the terrain,
which should moderate overnight temperatures in these locations.

A weak shortwave undercuts the high over New Mexico and moves
northward across Arizona on Wednesday. A slight increase in moisture
looks possible, but not really enough to produce any precipitation.
Additionally, the increase subsidence from the strengthening high
will act to cap any vertical motion. Thus, the only notable change
will likely just be a few extra clouds Wednesday and Thursday
afternoon.

Friday through Monday...High pressure then shifts westward slightly,
becoming centered and building over Arizona as it remains sandwiched
between a trough just off the California Coast and another over the
Mississippi River Valley. With the high amplified over Arizona, high
temperatures look to be near 10 to 15 degrees F above normal for
this time of year to finish out the week.

Temperatures look to gradually trend by the start of next week as
the high begins to shift once again. However, long-range ensemble
guidance continue to keep dry conditions in the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...Tuesday 24/18Z through Wednesday 25/18Z...VFR
conditions with winds E/NE 5-10 kts with occasional gusts 15-20
kts.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 25/18Z through Friday 27/18Z...VFR conditions
with S/SE winds around 10 kts on Wednesday, becoming VRB 5-10 kts
on Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Wednesday and Thursday...Above-normal temperatures
and dry conditions. South winds 5 to 15 mph, becoming variable on
Thursday. Afternoon minimum RH values 15 to 25 percent.

Friday through Sunday...Well above-normal temperatures and continued
dry conditions. Winds variable 5 to 10 mph on Friday, becoming south
over the weekend. Afternoon minimum RH values 10 to 20 percent.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Humphreys
AVIATION...Humphreys
FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff