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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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181 FXUS65 KFGZ 251116 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 416 AM MST Wed Sep 25 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Unseasonably warm temperatures and dry conditions will continue through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION...High pressure remains the main weather story for the rest of the week. The high is centered over the Four Corners region early this morning. Another day of warm temperatures is expected with highs around 5 to 10 degrees above the seasonal averages. Models have keyed on a weak shortwave rotating through the mid levels this morning. While this may increase moisture ever so slightly, it still looks like we will be too dry to see any rainfall as it cross the region. However, this may result in a few more clouds around through the day. Over the next day or two, the high will start to slide to the south and a little to the east becoming centered over New Mexico, before sliding west and centering over Arizona by Friday. Expect temperatures to remain well above normal with highs 10-15 degrees above the seasonal averages. Some slight cooling is expected by the weekend as the high begins to shift a bit to the north. However, the warm and dry conditions look to continue into next week. Winds may increase early next week as trough pushes into California but it makes little progress towards our area due to the strength of the high in place. With the unseasonably warm temperatures across the region, many places may near or break records over the next several days. Enjoy the late summer-like temperatures while they last because winter will be here before we know it! && .AVIATION...Wednesday 25/12Z through Thursday 26/12Z...VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period. Light and variable winds expected through at least 17Z, minus the KSEZ terminal where gusty NE winds will persist through the early morning hours. S winds 5-15 kts expected Tuesday afternoon, becoming light after 02Z. OUTLOOK...Thursday 26/12Z through Saturday 28/12Z...VFR conditions will continue through the outlook period. Winds will generally be 15 kts or less, varying in direction. && .FIRE WEATHER...Today and Thursday...High temperatures 7-15 degrees above normal will continue today and tomorrow. Expect minimum RH values to remain between 10-25% both afternoons, and winds generally out of the south at 5-15 mph. Friday through Sunday...Afternoon temperatures 10-15 degrees above normal will continue through the weekend, along with mostly dry conditions. Variable winds 5-15 mph forecast for Friday and Saturday, becoming more W-SW on Sunday. Minimum RH values 10-20% each day. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Meola AVIATION...Konieczny FIRE WEATHER...Konieczny For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff