Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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219 FXUS65 KFGZ 210548 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 1048 PM MST Fri Sep 20 2024 .SYNOPSIS...A low pressure system moving across Arizona will bring cooler temperatures, breezy winds, and chances for showers and thunderstorms tonight through Saturday. Warmer and drier weather is expected to return for much of the upcoming week. && .DISCUSSION...A compact upper low now crossing the Lower Colorado River will eject ENE to the Four Corners by this time on Saturday. Expect steepening lapse rates and increasing moisture overnight as the low moves through. This will be enough for scattered showers and thunderstorms, as well as some areas of stratiform precipitation in the dynamic eastern portion of the low. The cold core of low will also drop snow levels to 10k feet or so, any precipitation in the Flagstaff area will fall as snow over the San Francisco Peaks. Activity with this system is most likely near, north and northwest of the core of the low. During the day Saturday, drier and more subsident air will slowly trickle in from the northwest, with activity ending by evening. Dry and warming after that, with light winds and above normal temperatures for much of next week. Current PoP schemes look fine and no short term updates are needed. && .AVIATION...Saturday 21/06Z through Sunday 22/06Z...Scattered -SHRA/-TSRA with localized/brief MVFR conditions along/west of a KPRC-KFLG-KPGA line overnight with chances gradually increasing and spreading eastward through 18Z. By Saturday afternoon, the best chance of showers and thunderstorms will be along/north of I-40. Precipitation ends area wide by around 00Z. West to northwest winds 10-20 kts Saturday afternoon. OUTLOOK...Sunday 22/06Z through Tuesday 24/06Z...Dry with VFR conditions. Variable winds mostly 10 kts or less for Sunday and Monday. && .FIRE WEATHER...Saturday and Sunday...An area of low pressure will deliver chances for showers and thunderstorms through Saturday afternoon. Dry and warmer weather will move in on Sunday. Look for west-northwest winds at 10 to 20 mph on Saturday followed by northerly winds at 5 to 10 mph on Sunday. Monday through Wednesday...Warm and dry conditions will continue through Wednesday. Light and variable winds under 10 mph are forecast for Monday with northerly winds at 10-20 mph expected to develop on Tuesday and Wednesday. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Peterson AVIATION...JJ FIRE WEATHER...McCollum For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff