888
FXUS65 KFGZ 222057
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
200 PM MST Sat Jun 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...An early development to the 2024 Monsoon season will
bring chances for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms
well into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Arizona is essentially bisected by a rich plume of
sub-tropical moisture, with somewhat drier conditions to the west.
Location of debris cloud near and under this plume each day will
dictate where the early ignition is, with storm development mainly
moving off terrain or northeastward each afternoon.

We are basically in a low to medium grade Monsoon pattern at this
point, expect daily thunderstorm chances to continue for much of
this forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...Saturday 22/18Z through Sunday 23/18Z...Outside of
shower and thunderstorm activity, expect mainly VFR. Then from 19Z-
03Z, SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA producing MVFR conditions and erratic/gusty
winds.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 23/18Z through Tuesday 25/18Z...Outside of shower
and thunderstorm activity, expect mainly VFR. Then from 18Z-03Z each
day, SCT SHRA/TSRA producing MVFR conditions and erratic/gusty winds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Sunday and Monday...A low to medium grade Monsoon
pattern each day, with average temperatures and light winds outside
of storms. These storms are not dry and wetting rain is likely with
almost any convective development.

Tuesday through Thursday...A low to medium grade Monsoon pattern
each day, with average temperatures and light southwesterly winds
outside of storms. These storms are not dry and wetting rain is
likely with almost any convective development.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...Peterson
FIRE WEATHER...Peterson

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff