315
FXUS65 KFGZ 211154
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
454 AM MST Sat Sep 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...A low pressure system crossing through Arizona will
bring cooler temperatures, breezy winds, and chances for showers and
thunderstorms through this afternoon. Warmer and drier weather is
expected to return for much of the upcoming week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...An upper level low is located along the Arizona-
California border early this morning. The low will push towards the
east-northeast through the day today, exiting off towards Four
Corners by late tonight. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have
developed mainly along the rim. As we go through the day, the
precipitation will start to push off to the east and northeast.
Temperatures remain warm near the surface with colder air aloft.
This cold pool combined with the instability available this morning
has allowed for some of the stronger storms to contain a decent
amount of small hail (around 1/2" or so). Storm motion is fairly
quick so do not expect there me any flooding concerns through the
event. Some of the stronger storms may be able to drop a quick 0.25-
0.50" of rain but most areas will see less than 0.25". Snow levels
remain high, above 10,000 ft, so expect that only the highest
elevation will see snow with this event. While amounts will be
fairly light, we could see a few tenths of an inch of snow up on the
San Francisco Peaks. As the low tracks towards Four Corners, dry air
will start to be wrapped into the west/northwest side of the low. As
this occurs we should start to see the precipitation come to an end
and drier conditions will arrive across the area this evening.

Temperatures will warm and conditions dry out for Sunday and through
much of the coming week. The trough moving through the Four Corners
area around Tuesday looks weaker than it did even a day ago so that
has brought the chances for more preciptation down. Maybe a few
isolated showers find their way in but it is looking to be drier
than previously thought. Should the trough become stronger, chances
may return but more than likely confined to extreme eastern Arizona.
The ridge building down from the northwest becomes more dominant
through midweek and expect us to remain warm and dry as we head
towards the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...Saturday 21/12Z through Sunday 22/12Z...Scattered
-SHRA/-TSRA with localized/brief MVFR conditions spreading
 eastward through the day. Precipitation ends area wide by around
 00Z. West to northwest winds 10-20 kts Saturday afternoon with
 light winds overnight.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 22/12Z through Tuesday 24/12Z...Dry with VFR
conditions. Variable winds mostly 10 kts or less for Sunday and
Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Sunday...An area of low pressure will
bring chances for showers and thunderstorms through this afternoon.
Dry and warmer weather arrive Sunday. West to northwest winds 10 to
20 mph are expected today and northerly winds at 5 to 10 mph on
Sunday.

Monday through Wednesday...Warm days and dry conditions will
continue through Wednesday. Light and variable winds under 10 mph
are forecast for Monday with northerly winds at 10-20 mph expected
to develop on Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Meola
AVIATION...MAS
FIRE WEATHER...MAS

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff