Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
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939 FXUS65 KFGZ 182113 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 213 PM MST Wed Sep 18 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Slightly below normal temperatures and breezy conditions continue for the rest of this week. A passing weather system will bring a chance of showers late Friday through early Saturday, mainly north of I-40. A benign and warmer weather pattern develops for next week. && .DISCUSSION...Northern Arizona remains between low pressure systems today. An overall mild and breezy day is underway. Southwest winds are gusting up to about 20 to 25 mph. Similar weather conditions are in store through Friday as the next closed low slowly drops southward along the California coast, and then heads east toward Arizona. Breezy southwest winds will continue each afternoon and temperatures will remain about 5 to 7 degrees below normal. The closed low is forecast to track over the Lower Colorado River by Friday evening, and then slowly lift northeast across Arizona. There is not a great moisture fetch with this system, but enough residual moisture combined with some synoptic scale lift will yield isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms. The best precipitation potential will remain north of I-40, but precipitation chances have increased and spread as far south as Prescott and Payson by late Friday night. The trough axis quickly moves east of Arizona by midday Saturday with a dry northwesterly flow taking hold. The remainder of the forecast period looks to be dominated by a strong ridge building over the western states. Rising heights will lead to warmer temperatures and a period of dry and calm weather at least through the middle of next week, and perhaps longer. && .AVIATION...Wednesday 18/18Z through Thursday 19/18Z...Widespread VFR conditions persist through the period with mostly clear skies. Expect south to southwest winds, 10-25 kts, this afternoon becoming variable under 10 kts after 02Z. OUTLOOK...Thursday 19/18Z through Saturday 21/18Z...Mainly VFR conditions are anticipated through Saturday. Mostly clear sky conditions are forecast for Thursday into Friday, becoming SCT low to mid-level clouds for Friday night into Saturday. BKN cloud cover along with slight chances for -SHRA are forecast on Friday along and northwest of a P23-KFLG-KPGA line. Conditions improve on Saturday. Expect southwest winds, 15-25 kts, each afternoon, shifting to the northwest on Saturday. && .FIRE WEATHER...Thursday and Friday...The dry conditions continue on Thursday with seasonable temperatures and afternoon southwest breezes, 15 to 25 mph. Winds relax some after sunset, predominantly from the southeast, with moderate to good humidity recoveries overnight. Chances for showers are forecast for western portions of Coconino and Yavapai counties later on Friday with southerly winds, 15 to 30 mph. Saturday through Monday...Cooler temperatures with breezy, 10 to 20 mph, northwest winds are expected on Saturday. West to north winds are forecast on Sunday and Monday as a warming and drying trend develops. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ PUBLIC...MCT AVIATION...LaGuardia FIRE WEATHER...LaGuardia For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff