889
FXUS65 KFGZ 160414
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
914 PM MST Sat Jun 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions will combine with breezy southwest
winds to create critical fire weather conditions both Sunday and
Monday. Temperatures will trend closer to normal Sunday through
Wednesday before warming again late next week.

&&

.UPDATE...There are just a few clouds over far eastern Apache
north of St Johns this evening. These clouds should all move east
into New Mexico by midnight. Southwest breezes are still being
reported across the area this evening...mostly below 10 knots.
These winds will slowly diminish through the night. Current
forecast is in good shape.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /519 PM MST/...Mostly zonal flow aloft is allowing for breezy
afternoon conditions as a trough enters the Pacific NW. As the
trough dives southeast, winds are going to be increasing across
the SW tomorrow into Monday. While this system enters, little
shift in moisture availability is expected. This means that many
tomorrow will still have critically low RHs coupled with near
critical to critical wind gusts. As this system passes, higher
winds across northern Arizona will shift from west to east.
Because of this, more of our western zones are in a RFW for
Sunday, then shifting east Monday. That said, it is possible that
parts of Yavapai county could briefly still hit RFW criteria
Monday, but the time window will be limited as the system moves.

While RFW criteria is the headline of the weather Sunday and
Monday, the increased winds combined with a VERY minimal input of
cooler temperatures from the passing trough will allow for a
slight drop in temperatures tomorrow into the middle of next work
week, bringing high temperatures closer to normal for this time of
year.

High pressure will be able to start working its way back into the
area by late next week, allowing temperatures to start warming
once again. One difference this time compared to recent pushes of
heating is the increase in moisture. Both Euro and GFS ensemble
guidance are honing in on PWATS increasing late next week into
next weekend with the mean pushing values near an inch or more for
southern Arizona. This increase in moisture in the current 7 day
can be seen with low POPs sliding in from NM by the end of this
work week. Still subject to change so stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...Sunday 16/00Z through Monday 17/00Z...VFR. Variable
winds less than 10 kts overnight, then increasing SW winds 15-25
kts with gusts 25-35 kts after 16Z.

OUTLOOK...Monday 17/00Z through Wednesday 19/00Z...VFR. S-SW winds
15-25 kts with gusts 25-35 kts between 18Z-02Z with light and
variable winds overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Sunday and Monday...Warm, very dry and windy at
times. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for large portions of
central and northern Arizona on both afternoons. Expect daytime
southwest winds from 15 to 25 mph, with gusts from 35 to 40 mph.
Winds will decrease substantially at night.

Tuesday through Thursday...Dry and breezy, with seasonable
temperatures. Daytime south through southwest winds 10 to 20 mph,
with gusts around 25 mph, all days.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM MST /noon MDT/ to 8 PM MST /9 PM
MDT/ Sunday for AZZ104>109-112-115-140.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM MST /noon MDT/ to 8 PM MST /9 PM
MDT/ Monday for AZZ106-107-109>116-139-140.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MAS/RKR
AVIATION...Meola
FIRE WEATHER...Meola

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff