267
FNUS75 KFGZ 210500
FWSFGZ

Spot Forecast for Sayer fire...US Forest Service
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1000 PM MST Thu Jun 20 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 2200 MST on June 20.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the
National Weather Service in Flagstaff, AZ

.DISCUSSION...Generally fair conditions overnight will lead to
scattered showers and thunderstorms Friday and Saturday. Minimum
RH will generally be 25-30 percent with daytime winds around 10kts
from the south. Winds will be gusty around any storms that form in
the area.

.REST OF TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear. Isolated shower possible overnight.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 53.
Max humidity........85-90 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light south winds.
LAL.................2.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Min Vent Rate.......Poor.
Clearing Index......4.
Mixing height.......100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 5 to 10 knots shifting to the southeast
                    after 3 am.

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny in the morning, becoming partly cloudy
with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......40-50 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 83.
Min humidity........25-30 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds around 10 mph shifting to the
                    southwest in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
LAL.................3.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Max Vent Rate.......Excellent.
Clearing Index......3294.
Mixing height.......9200 ft AGL in the morning increasing to 14100
                    ft AGL late in the morning.
Transport winds.....Southeast around 10 knots shifting to the south
                    15 to 20 knots in the late morning and early
                    afternoon, then shifting to the southwest
                    around 25 knots late in the afternoon.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy then becoming partly cloudy.
                    Chance of showers and thunderstorms in the
                    evening.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 54.
Max humidity........80-85 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds around 5 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms in the
                    evening.
LAL.................3.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Min Vent Rate.......Poor.
Clearing Index......2.
Mixing height.......100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 5 to 10 knots.

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny. Chance of showers and
thunderstorms.
                    afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 83.
Min humidity........27-32 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
LAL.................3.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Max Vent Rate.......Good.
Clearing Index......541.
Mixing height.......10600 ft AGL decreasing to 300 ft AGL late in
                    the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southeast 5 to 10 knots.

$$
Forecaster...KLIMOWSKI
Requested by...Nathaniel Dierking
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2416479.0/FGZ
.DELDT 06/20/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Nathaniel.Dierking@usda.gov