Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD
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029 FXUS63 KFSD 240338 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 1038 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Chances (20-25%) for scattered light showers return this evening as a cold front moves across the region. Rainfall amounts at or below a tenth of an inch are expected. - Temperatures trend back to normal to above normal levels for the middle of the week. Chances for precipitation remain low. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 241 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Quite the gorgeous day out there, with latest observations showing sunny skies and temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Winds have remained primarily out of the south, with gusts up to 25 MPH along and east of I-29. Should see breezy conditions quickly diminish this evening as cloud cover builds ahead of an advancing cold front. As alluded to in the previous discussion, overall moisture with this boundary is lacking, and with little in the way of significant forcing, do not expect to see much more than a few isolated showers through the overnight period. Given the aforementioned cloud cover in place, have kept overnight lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Outside of a few lingering showers along the far eastern fringes of our CWA, should see largely dry conditions prevail Tuesday. Winds during this time look to become northwesterly in the wake of FROPA, leading to a slightly cooler day. As such, have afternoon highs in the lower 70s under partly cloudy skies. Lows will also feel a bit crisp, as temperatures drop into the mid to upper 40s. Upper level ridging builds across the region Wednesday, keeping conditions dry through mid-week. This will also allow temperatures to rise back closer to seasonal norms, as highs reach the upper 70s to lower 80s. In regard to winds, the breeziest day looks to occur Thursday, with southerly gusts between 20 to 30 MPH possible in areas west of I-29 through the afternoon. Model consistency begins to wane heading into the weekend, as an upper level low lifts north over the Ark-La-Tex region. As of now, most guidance has this feature moving north over Iowa, then veering east toward the Ohio Valley. That being said, if the low were to deviate west instead, couldn`t rule out seeing some showers/storms in areas south of I-90. Nonetheless, still a bit hard to put much confidence behind any one solution just yet, so have left model blend of PoPs as if for the time being. Otherwise, look for highs in the mid to upper 70s to continue, with lows generally in the 50s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1037 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Main aviation concern remains the cold front moving through the area from northwest to east-southeast, and as of 0300Z the front remains off to the west of the I-29 corridor. Winds out ahead of the front remain out of the south, becoming northwesterly behind the front. Have seen precipitation being observed by automated gauges, and given how scattered the rain is being shown on radar, have included tempo groups for KFSD and KSUX rather than prevailing. VFR conditions expected to continue, with semi-breezy northwesterly winds developing throughout the morning hours with gusts into the teens and lower 20s. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...SST AVIATION...APT