576
FXUS64 KFWD 231840
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
140 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Tuesday/

A slow-moving cold front is currently draped along a Comanche-Fort
worth-Gainesville line but isn`t particularly discernible outside
of a weak northwest wind shift and a subtle drop in temperatures
and dew points behind the front. Ongoing showers continue to
weaken early this afternoon and will gradually diminish over the
next couple of hours or so, with a lull in rain chances this
evening into the overnight period. Clouds have started to scatter
out across our northeast zones, with the rest of the forecast
area expected to see some clearing by this evening. The lingering
clouds will keep temperatures confined to the mid 70s to low 80s
across most of the area, with some spots reaching into the upper
80s to low 90s across Central Texas where less cloud cover is
expected through the afternoon.

While most of tonight will be quiet and rain-free, another weak
shortwave trough will skirt the Southern Plains, providing enough
ascent for scattered showers and storms to develop late tonight
into early Tuesday morning near the slow-moving front. Have kept
PoPs confined to areas south of I-20, and coverage should be far
less than what we saw this morning. The shortwave will gently
usher the front through the remainder of the forecast area.
However, the front will be quite washed out by the time this
occurs. As a result, temperatures will rebound into the mid to
upper 80s areawide tomorrow. Most of the morning showers and
storms should dissipate by late morning or midday, but isolated
activity may linger across Central Texas through the afternoon.

Barnes

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 301 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024/
/Wednesday Onward/

Overview...
No major weather impacts are expected during the extended forecast
periods. The mid and late workweek will feature slightly below-
normal temperatures with highs in the 80s and overnight lows in
the 60s (low 50s across North Texas outside of the Metroplex). A
warming trend is expected over the weekend into early next week.
The best chance for rain will be Tuesday night and Wednesday
morning, with lower rain chances returning Friday and Saturday.
Friday and Saturday will also be breezy, but below Wind Advisory
criteria.

Meteorological Discussion...
The cooler weather and relatively quiet pattern later this week
will largely be a result of being under the back side of a stout
upper-level low over the Mississippi Valley. The primary shortwave
trough for this low will move across the region Tuesday night into
Wednesday, developing some showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms
during this time. This trough should move south/east by Wednesday
afternoon, with northerly flow aloft prevailing thereafter.

Normally, that would be the end of the story for this feature and
our attention would shift to what`s coming from the west. However,
the National Hurricane Center is currently forecasting a 90%
chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 7 days with a
disturbance currently in the western Caribbean Sea. Why does this
matter? No, there is not a reasonable threat of landfall to the
Texas Gulf coast, but the consensus in the guidance has the
tropical system moving into Southeastern CONUS, then getting
wrapped into the aforementioned upper-level low. 500 mb progs in
the deterministic--and even the latest mean ensemble--guidance is
indicating a high likelihood of the Fujiwhara effect occurring
over the Central and Eastern CONUS late this week into this
weekend. As this ensues, the upper low should deepen and shift
west, bringing increased rain chances to the area Friday and
Saturday. Also in response to this, a corridor of strong northerly
winds develop across the Central Plains. Only about 10% of the
guidance is suggesting wind speeds at or above our Wind Advisory
criteria, but it should still be a breezy Friday and Saturday.

As far as what happens to the tropical system as it merges into
the parent upper low over the weekend, it should migrate entirely
around the low. As it moves into and through the southwestern
quadrant of the low, it will have the most influence on our local
weather. What that influence will be is still largely TBD, but it
doesn`t look to be overly impactful at this time.

Bonnette

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

Lingering IFR/MVFR ceilings will continue to lift to VFR over the
next few hours, with low clouds scattering out by this evening.
Areas of rain continue south and east of D10 airspace, but this
activity should gradually diminish over the next couple of hours
or so. Winds have finally shifted out of the northwest at
DFW/FTW/AFW, and DAL/GKY will soon follow within the next hour or
so. Winds speeds will remain near 10 knots or less for the
this afternoon and will weaken below 5 knots this evening through
the remainder of the period. Given the light wind speeds, wind
direction may be variable at times tonight through Tuesday.

Additional scattered showers and a few storms are expected to
develop south of the I-20 corridor late tonight into early Tuesday
morning. This activity may approach the KACT terminal, but
coverage will be far less than we saw this morning. We`ll hold
off on any mention in the TAF for now, but we`ll reassess once
there is greater confidence in convective trends. MVFR stratus
will develop across portions of the area tonight and has been
introduced to the KACT TAF. The potential was too low to include
in any of the D10 TAFs at this time, but this will be re-evaluated
in future issuances.

Barnes

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    79  67  87  66  83 /  80  10   5  40  20
Waco                84  69  88  65  86 /  60  30  30  30  20
Paris               81  62  86  63  81 /  80   5   0  30  20
Denton              79  61  88  64  83 /  70   5   5  50  20
McKinney            80  62  88  64  83 /  80   5   5  40  20
Dallas              81  67  89  66  85 /  80  10  10  40  20
Terrell             83  65  89  64  83 /  70  20  10  30  20
Corsicana           87  69  90  66  86 /  70  30  30  30  20
Temple              87  68  89  66  87 /  30  30  30  40  20
Mineral Wells       76  61  88  63  83 /  50  20  10  50  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$