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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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502 FXUS64 KFWD 211801 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 101 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Saturday Afternoon/ High pressure will continue to build across North and Central Texas through the first half of the weekend. With subsidence in place, temperatures will climb to the lower to mid 90s today and mid 90s tomorrow. Low-level southerly flow will help draw plenty of moisture into our region, bumping heat index values a few degrees above the actual temperature. Most locations will likely experience heat index values in the mid to upper 90s. Southerly winds will persist through tomorrow afternoon, generally between 5-10 mph. Hernandez && .LONG TERM... /Issued 246 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024/ /Saturday Onward/ Over the next several days, the upper ridge will propagate westward from its current location across the Ohio Valley, eventually taking up residence over the Desert Southwest by midweek. As this transition occurs, the ridge axis will be centered directly overhead from Sunday through Tuesday, leading to hot and subsident conditions locally. This will result in the hottest temperatures of the year so far with highs in the upper 90s and a few spots reaching triple-digits on a daily basis through the extended forecast period. In addition, a steady influx of Gulf moisture within southeasterly low-level low will maintain high humidity levels, especially during the first half of the workweek. This will lead to heat index values reaching and exceeding 105 for much of the area, and a return to heat headlines can be expected in the coming days. By Wednesday, the ridge will have completed its westward progression, amplifying the synoptic pattern and placing the Plains within northwest flow aloft in the process. This pattern can sometimes allow weak fronts to push as far south as KS/OK, with resultant convective complexes occasionally progressing towards North Texas within NNW steering flow. This setup will offer at least some low thunderstorm chances next Wednesday and Thursday with PoPs of 20-30% currently in the forecast. However, since these complexes are driven at the mesoscale level, the potential for any such convection to actually affect the forecast area will remain quite uncertain for a few more days. Unless next week`s heat wave is interrupted by such convection or at least some remnant cloud cover, oppressive heat and humidity will likely continue into the late week period. -Stalley && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /18Z TAFs/ Concerns...None. No major weather impacts are expected at any of the North and Central TAF sites. Southerly winds between 10-15 knots will prevail through the duration of this forecast. Some low clouds will be possible across Central Texas, however, they should remain just south of KACT. Some high clouds will continue to stream across the sky today and tomorrow. Hernandez && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 93 77 96 78 99 / 0 0 0 0 0 Waco 91 74 93 73 96 / 0 0 0 0 0 Paris 91 72 94 75 97 / 0 0 0 0 0 Denton 94 74 97 75 99 / 5 0 0 0 0 McKinney 93 74 95 76 98 / 5 0 0 0 0 Dallas 94 77 97 78 99 / 0 0 0 0 0 Terrell 92 74 94 74 96 / 0 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 94 76 95 76 96 / 0 0 0 0 0 Temple 92 73 93 72 96 / 5 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 92 73 95 73 98 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$