Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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320 FXUS64 KFWD 221057 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 557 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 ...New Aviation, Short Term... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ Update: Made some minor changes to PoPs for this afternoon/evening based on latest trends in the high-res guidance and current surface observations. The old outflow boundary is still draped across Central Oklahoma with the actual cold front farther northwest across the Panhandle and northwest Oklahoma, based on temps and RAP theta-e analysis. While the front is on the move, it is a little slower than the previous forecast, so I`ve nudged PoPs down a bit for late this afternoon across the northwest. It still looks like widespread scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will develop atop the frontal surface tonight, and have nudged PoPs upward a bit through the overnight hours. No other significant changes are needed at this time. Dunn Previous Discussion: /Overnight through Monday/ One more hot day is in store for North Texas before a cold front moves through and brings rain chances along with cooler weather through the middle part of the week. Mid level ridging will continue to get squished to the south as stronger troughing overspreads the western and central CONUS through Monday. This initial shortwave trough will send a cold front southward through North Texas later this evening. Right now, the front is draped across the TX Panhandle and far northwest Oklahoma with a noticeable outflow boundary from earlier convection draped across central Oklahoma. This will effectively become the cold front later today and will spread south into North Texas this evening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing mainly to our northwest this afternoon, although a few storms could sneak into our northwest counties during this time. Better rain chances will arrive with the front this evening, although the strongest synoptic forcing for ascent will begin to pull away to the northeast by tonight. The highest PoPs this evening will be along the front mainly across our far western counties, where a semi- organized cluster of storms should be ongoing. Farther northeast along the front, scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are expected, although rainfall amounts should be lighter than areas to the southwest. Rain chances will linger through the overnight hours and into Monday morning as the front makes slow southward progress and another upstream shortwave races through the Southern Plains. Highs today will top out in the mid 90s under partly cloudy skies, but will drop 5-15 degrees on Monday with clouds lingering around and north winds ushering in some cooler air. Dunn && .LONG TERM... /Issued 404 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024/ /Tuesday through Saturday/ The cold front mentioned in the short-term discussion will push well south of our forecast area by Monday night, becoming stationary across south central Texas by Tuesday. Surface high pressure over the Central Plains will enable a persistent northerly wind flow through most of the week - indeed, the longest period of north winds North Texas has experienced since the spring months. This will help moderate the temperatures this coming week, versus the unseasonably warm conditions we`ve encountered of late. A large-scale upper level trough will develop and deepen across the Midwest in the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe, while a smaller- scale lobe of vorticity slides southeastward into our region on the backside of this larger feature. The forcing for ascent brought about by this approaching shortwave will provide our second primary opportunity for precipitation across the area this week. Scattered showers, and perhaps some isolated thunderstorms, will initially develop over our western counties Tuesday afternoon, with scattered coverage expanding across the remainder of North Texas Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Moisture and lift will not be overly significant, and thus QPF amounts should remain fairly light area-wide Tuesday night into Wednesday. Most of the precipitation should exit the region to the east by late Wednesday afternoon, with dry conditions persisting from that point onward through Saturday. The combination of lower thicknesses, persistent northerly surface flow, and intermittent clouds and precipitation should combine to reel afternoon temperatures back to near (or even below) seasonal norms. Highs through the period should be confined to the lower 80s across much of the area, with middle 80s present in the central counties. These values were consistent with those offered by the NBM, as well as the ECMWF ensemble guidance. Overnight lows in the lower to middle 60s (with some 50s out west) will definitely help make the mornings feel a bit more fall-like. Bradshaw && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /12Z TAFs/ VFR will prevail today with southerly winds around 10 kt and an increase in high cloud cover. A cold front will approach the region tonight and we`ll show an initial wind shift around 03Z which is a touch slower than the previous forecast. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are expected across the region mainly overnight and we`ll continue with the VCSH for a few hours as the front moves through. A passing disturbance late tonight should result in an uptick in showers and a few thunderstorms after midnight. We`ll also see widespread MVFR cigs late tonight into Monday morning. Dunn && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 95 69 80 67 83 / 5 50 50 10 20 Waco 96 71 86 69 87 / 0 40 20 10 30 Paris 93 70 81 63 84 / 0 30 50 10 10 Denton 94 65 81 62 84 / 10 50 50 10 20 McKinney 94 68 81 64 84 / 5 50 50 10 20 Dallas 95 70 81 67 84 / 5 50 40 10 20 Terrell 95 70 83 66 85 / 0 40 40 10 20 Corsicana 95 73 87 69 87 / 0 30 20 10 20 Temple 95 71 89 69 88 / 0 30 20 10 30 Mineral Wells 93 64 80 62 82 / 20 70 50 20 30 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$