390
FXUS64 KFWD 210540 AAD
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1240 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Overnight through Sunday/

Mid level ridging will remain in control of North Texas weather
through much of the weekend resulting in hot and dry weather, but
changes are on the way early next week. In the meantime, a minimum
in PW over North and East Texas associated with the mid level
ridge will linger through Saturday night. Southerly winds will
slowly tap into better moisture, but the western Gulf is
relatively dry at this time. This means we`ll warm up nicely again
today with highs in the mid to upper 90s and heat index values
topping out just above 100 degrees.

Mid level ridging will begin to break down a bit later tonight and
Sunday as a fairly strong shortwave spreads out of the Four
Corners region and into the Plains. As it does, a cold front will
slide southward and should be located across West Texas into
Central Oklahoma by Sunday afternoon. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will likely be ongoing during this time off to our
northwest. While the main shortwave will pass well off to our
north, the front will still have some southerly push and should
enter our northwest counties after dark Sunday evening. We`ll have
some 20-40% PoPs late Sunday afternoon across our far northwest
counties but these should increase significantly overnight.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 319 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024/
/Saturday Night Onward/

The ridge responsible for the recent hot streak will weaken late
this weekend and early next week as a shortwave trough moves
slowly east through the Plains. The trough will be accompanied by
a Pacific cold front, which will serve as a focus for scattered
showers and isolated storms as it pushes equally slowly southeast
through the forecast area. The front and associated convection
will be ongoing just northwest of the region on Sunday, and should
enter the northwest zones Sunday night. Precipitation will spread
slowly southeast with the front, reaching a line from Paris to
Dallas to Lampasas during the day Monday. Convection will weaken
Monday night as it moves through East and Central Texas due to the
loss of surface instability and the absence of ascent as the
shortwave accelerates off to the east.

The front will stall somewhere across our southern-most counties
Monday night/Tuesday as the shortwave makes its departure and a
second shortwave trough drops southeast along the front range.
Another round of showers and occasional thunderstorms will develop
along and north of the boundary late Tuesday as isentropic ascent
strengthens in advance of the second shortwave disturbance. At
this time, strongest lift and best rain and storm chances would
occur Tuesday night or Wednesday, as the shortwave transitions to
a closed low while turning east through the Southern Plains.
Precipitation will eventually exit to the east on Thursday as the
low lift northeast of the region.

Severe weather does not seem likely at this time in either the
early week or the mid week events based on limited instability and
modest shear, but a few strong storms may still occur. Whatever
the case, the majority of the region should receive measurable
rainfall over the first half of next week between the two systems.

The front, cloud cover and precipitation will work together to
keep conditions quite a bit cooler compared to this weekend.
Sunday should be our last hot day of the period with highs in the
90s, followed by near normal temperatures for the rest of the week
(lows in the 60s and highs in the 80s). Otherwise, mid range
guidance continues to indicate a possible tropical system in the
Gulf around the end of next week. What this system may do and
where it may go are uncertain at this time, but it will be a
feature we will keep an eye on as the end of the month draws near.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/6Z TAFs/

VFR will prevail through the period with some passing high clouds
and southerly winds around 10 kt. No significant aviation concerns
are expected at this time.

Dunn

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    78  96  76  93  69 /   0   0   0   0  30
Waco                73  96  72  94  71 /   0   0   0   0  20
Paris               71  96  74  93  71 /   0   0   0   0  20
Denton              74  98  74  94  65 /   0   0   0   5  30
McKinney            75  98  74  94  69 /   0   0   0   0  30
Dallas              77  98  76  94  71 /   0   0   0   0  30
Terrell             74  98  72  94  70 /   0   0   0   0  20
Corsicana           73  98  73  94  73 /   0   0   0   0  10
Temple              73  97  71  94  71 /   0   0   0   0  10
Mineral Wells       70  97  71  93  63 /   0   0   0  10  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$