658
FXUS64 KFWD 211015
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
515 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
All showers have dissipated overnight, leaving only a mix of
clouds across North and Central Texas early this morning.

The current forecast appears to be on track and no major changes
are necessary at this time.


79

Previous Discussion:
/Overnight through Friday night/

Although the remnants of Tropical Storm Alberto continue to move
west across Mexico, deep moisture remains well to the north and
east of the circulation, keeping scattered to broken clouds across
North and Central Texas. A few showers on the outer periphery of
the circulation were moving across portions of Central Texas this
evening. These showers will dissipate in the next couple of hours,
leaving the forecast area rain-free overnight.

Easterly low level flow will keep dew points in the upper 60s to
lower 70s overnight with lows remaining slightly higher than the
dew point. Afternoon highs Friday will warm into the upper 80s to
the lower 90s, which is near or slightly below normal for this
time of year. Deep moisture will keep dew points from mixing out,
so heat index values Friday afternoon will range from the middle
90s to around 100.

Subsidence under a building ridge aloft will keep Friday through
the weekend rain-free with a warming trend. Summer weather is
here and right on time.

79

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 246 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024/
/Saturday Onward/

Over the next several days, the upper ridge will propagate
westward from its current location across the Ohio Valley,
eventually taking up residence over the Desert Southwest by
midweek. As this transition occurs, the ridge axis will be
centered directly overhead from Sunday through Tuesday, leading
to hot and subsident conditions locally. This will result in the
hottest temperatures of the year so far with highs in the upper
90s and a few spots reaching triple-digits on a daily basis
through the extended forecast period. In addition, a steady influx
of Gulf moisture within southeasterly low-level low will maintain
high humidity levels, especially during the first half of the
workweek. This will lead to heat index values reaching and
exceeding 105 for much of the area, and a return to heat headlines
can be expected in the coming days.

By Wednesday, the ridge will have completed its westward
progression, amplifying the synoptic pattern and placing the
Plains within northwest flow aloft in the process. This pattern
can sometimes allow weak fronts to push as far south as KS/OK,
with resultant convective complexes occasionally progressing
towards North Texas within NNW steering flow. This setup will
offer at least some low thunderstorm chances next Wednesday and
Thursday with PoPs of 20-30% currently in the forecast. However,
since these complexes are driven at the mesoscale level, the
potential for any such convection to actually affect the forecast
area will remain quite uncertain for a few more days. Unless next
week`s heat wave is interrupted by such convection or at least
some remnant cloud cover, oppressive heat and humidity will likely
continue into the late week period.

-Stalley

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

Other than the potential for some brief high end (2500 to 3000 ft)
MVFR ceilings just after sunrise across portions of Central
Texas, including Waco, all TAF sites should remain VFR today with
few to scattered daytime Cu and scattered to broken middle and
upper level clouds. Increasing subsidence under a building ridge
aloft will hinder any appreciable chance for precipitation.

A prevailing southeast wind will continue in the 5 to 11 knot
range through Saturday morning along with a few higher daytime
gusts.

79

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    93  77  96  78  99 /   5   0   0   0   0
Waco                91  74  94  74  96 /  10   0   0   0   0
Paris               91  72  94  75  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              94  74  96  75  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            93  74  95  76  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              94  77  97  78  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             92  74  94  74  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           94  76  95  75  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              92  73  94  72  96 /  10   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       92  73  95  73  98 /   5   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$