049
FXUS64 KFWD 230532
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1232 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Overnight through Tuesday/

A cold front is moving through North Texas at this hour and is
draped along a line from near Sherman to Dallas to Comanche.
Temperatures behind the front have fallen into the upper 60s
across the northwest with breezy north winds. The front will
continue to make steady southward progress through the night, but
will slow down early Monday morning as the main shortwave pulls
off to the northeast. We`ll remain beneath larger scale broad
troughing throughout the Southern Plains today which will keep at
least some weak forcing for ascent in place. Widespread showers
and a few thunderstorms are currently ongoing behind the front in
response to modest isentropic ascent. This will begin to wane as
we head into the mid morning hours on Monday. For the rest of the
overnight period, we`ll continue to have high PoPs mainly across
the northwest half of the CWA. Some localized pockets of heavier
rainfall associated with more vigorous convective activity could
produce more than an inch of rain, but most areas will generally
see light totals.

The front should make it into central Texas later today and
despite the better forcing being removed from the area, it should
remain a focus for at least isolated shower and thunderstorm
activity. PoPs will be confined to the frontal zone across our
central TX counties and generally be capped at 20%. Abundant cloud
cover will limit high temperatures to the upper 70s and lower 80s
north of the front while a few locations to the south of the
boundary could push 90 degrees again this afternoon. Clouds will
thin out some tonight with most areas falling into the low/mid
60s.

On Tuesday, the frontal boundary will linger across our Central TX
counties again and should be a focus for at least isolated to
scattered showers and storms through the day. We`ll have PoPs at
20-30% during this time with high temperatures in the 80s.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 208 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024/
Update:
No significant changes were made to the previous forecast, thus,
the weather discussion appended below is still valid. There
remains a considerable amount of uncertainty regarding the
evolution of the upper-level trough/low that will struggle to
progress east of the Plains during the midweek period, becoming
cut off either over the Southern Plains or Mississippi Valley.
This is likely to be further complicated by the anticipated
tropical system that is expected to develop across the Gulf of
Mexico this week. Regardless, the net result is the renewed
potential for rain for parts of the area late in the week as an
upper low lingers overhead (or nearby). Did not deviate much from
the NBM temperature and PoP forecast through the long term given
the model disagreement.

12

Previous Discussion:
/Tuesday through Saturday/

The cold front mentioned in the short-term discussion will push
well south of our forecast area by Monday night, becoming
stationary across south central Texas by Tuesday. Surface high
pressure over the Central Plains will enable a persistent
northerly wind flow through most of the week - indeed, the longest
period of north winds North Texas has experienced since the
spring months. This will help moderate the temperatures this
coming week, versus the unseasonably warm conditions we`ve
encountered of late.

A large-scale upper level trough will develop and deepen across
the Midwest in the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe, while a smaller-
scale lobe of vorticity slides southeastward into our region on
the backside of this larger feature. The forcing for ascent
brought about by this approaching shortwave will provide our
second primary opportunity for precipitation across the area this
week. Scattered showers, and perhaps some isolated thunderstorms,
will initially develop over our western counties Tuesday
afternoon, with scattered coverage expanding across the remainder
of North Texas Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Moisture and
lift will not be overly significant, and thus QPF amounts should
remain fairly light area-wide Tuesday night into Wednesday. Most
of the precipitation should exit the region to the east by late
Wednesday afternoon, with dry conditions persisting from that
point onward through Saturday.

The combination of lower thicknesses, persistent northerly surface
flow, and intermittent clouds and precipitation should combine to
reel afternoon temperatures back to near (or even below) seasonal
norms. Highs through the period should be confined to the lower
80s across much of the area, with middle 80s present in the
central counties. These values were consistent with those offered
by the NBM, as well as the ECMWF ensemble guidance. Overnight lows
in the lower to middle 60s (with some 50s out west) will
definitely help make the mornings feel a bit more fall-like.

Bradshaw

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/6Z TAFs/

A cold front is moving through North Texas at this hour with
widespread light rainfall and a few embedded thunderstorms mainly
west of the major airports. Rain/storm chances will increase a bit
overnight before the bulk of the activity pulls off to the
northeast through Monday morning. Cigs/vis are VFR now, but
ceiling heights will lower overnight and widespread MVFR is
expected by morning with at least some potential for IFR cigs
after sunrise. Conditions will improve through the day as
precipitation ends and ceiling heights lift. North-northwest winds
will prevail around 10 kt with a more westerly direction expected
overnight tonight.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    71  82  67  87  66 /  70  70  20  20  40
Waco                73  86  69  88  66 /  30  60  30  30  40
Paris               70  82  62  86  62 /  30  50   5  10  30
Denton              68  82  62  88  63 /  80  60  10  20  40
McKinney            71  83  63  88  63 /  60  60  10  10  40
Dallas              73  84  67  88  65 /  70  70  20  20  40
Terrell             73  84  65  88  64 /  50  60  20  20  30
Corsicana           74  88  70  89  67 /  20  40  20  30  30
Temple              72  89  69  90  66 /  20  40  30  30  40
Mineral Wells       66  81  62  88  63 /  90  70  20  20  50

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$