610
FXUS64 KFWD 210030
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
730 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Friday Afternoon/

Despite the landfall of the tropical storm (now tropical
depression) along the coast of Mexico, the first day of
astronomical summer has been warm and mostly precipitation-free
apart from a few isolated showers that developed late this morning
and early afternoon. Current RAP analysis and mid-level water
vapor satellite imagery shows an expansive pool of seasonably high
moisture extending well north and northeast of the center of T.D.
Alberto, as evidenced by the large shield of clouds stretching
from northern Mexico into Oklahoma. With a thinning cloud canopy
overhead, temperatures climbed as much as 5 to 10 degrees above
yesterday`s peak with highs topping out in the upper 80s and lower
90s this afternoon.

Subsidence beneath a retrograding upper-level ridge over the Ohio
River Valley should suppress convective development through the
rest of the period with additional thinning/scattering of cloud
cover as drier air begins to entrain into the mid-levels. The warm
up continues Friday with morning lows in the low/mid 70s and
afternoon highs in the low/mid 90s. With a lingering reservoir of
low-level moisture (dewpoints in the low 70s), peak heat indices
will be a few to several degrees higher than the actual
temperatures with a few spots likely reaching or exceeding the
century mark on Friday. Temperatures will continue to climb
through the extended forecast period (discussed in detail below)
as the ridge axis shifts westward.

12

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 206 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024/
/Friday Night Onward/

The main headline for the upcoming weekend and next week will be
hot, rain-free and humid conditions. Upper-level ridging will
take hold of the region and result in highs in the mid 90s
Saturday warming into the mid/upper 90s Sunday. Another area of
low pressure near the Bay of Campeche has been outlined by NHC for
potential tropical cyclone development (50%) in the next 7 days.
The strength of the ridge will dampen any real impacts, however,
outside of increased moisture from the Gulf sending widespread
heat indices above the triple digit mark by the start of next
week.

This heat will unfortunately continue into the midweek, with
afternoon temperatures forecast in the upper 90s and breaking 100
degrees in some areas Monday into Wednesday, along with heat indices
nearing the 105-110 F range Tuesday and Wednesday regionwide. These
hot "feels like" temperatures will increase the potential for
heat-related illnesses, particularly among vulnerable
populations. Overnight lows Tuesday night will also be quite warm
in the upper 70s (and some low 80s in North TX), increasing the
likelihood of heat stress from a lack of relief in the overnight
periods. Regardless of exact temperatures, this is the North &
Central TX`s first potential for an extended duration of hot
temperatures this season, and precautions to protect yourself and
your loved ones from the heat and resultant heat-related illnesses
should be taken. Guidance still indicates a potential for the
ridge to break down in the mid to late week period, however any
rain chances returning will likely hold off until Wednesday. With
the center of the ridge off to the west, NW flow aloft may allow
for some lucky areas to see rain, although the overall chance of
receiving any meaningful rainfall is quite low. While some
deterministic runs are slightly more bullish Wednesday into
Thursday, ensemble guidance is only highlighting a 20% chance for
more than 0.1" of rain for those north of HWY 380 and east of
I-35, with the rest of the region unlikely (10% chance or less)
to receive rainfall. As always, we will continue to monitor this
potential, however the greatest attention should be directed
towards the heat in the next 3-7 days.

Gordon

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

The isolated showers that developed across the region this
afternoon have mostly dissipated as Tropical Depression Alberto
and the associated plume of tropical moisture continues to push
further west into Mexico. VFR conditions will prevail with MVFR
ceilings expected to build back into portions of Central Texas
before daybreak Friday. The latest guidance has backed off some
(probabilities down to 20% or less) on even bringing these
ceilings near the KACT terminal. However, with no significant
drying expected in the lower levels, MVFR cigs are likely to be
more aggressive than depicted currently by the models so we will
keep the TEMPO for lowered ceilings at Waco with this update.
Easterly winds will become more southeasterly by Friday morning
while speeds remain around 10 kts or less.

12

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    77  93  77  96  78 /   5   5   0   0   0
Waco                74  91  74  94  74 /  10   5   0   0   0
Paris               71  91  72  94  74 /   5   0   0   0   0
Denton              74  93  74  97  75 /   5   5   0   0   0
McKinney            74  93  74  96  75 /   5   0   0   0   0
Dallas              77  93  77  97  78 /   5   5   0   0   0
Terrell             73  92  74  95  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           75  93  76  95  75 /   5  10   0   0   0
Temple              72  91  72  94  72 /  20   5   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       73  91  73  95  74 /   5   5   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$