836
FXUS64 KFWD 181858
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
158 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1217 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024/
/Through Wednesday/

An influx of Gulf moisture associated with Potential Tropical
Cyclone One will result in periodic showers and thunderstorms
across North and Central Texas today and tomorrow. Coverage will
remain isolated to widely scattered this afternoon and largely
diurnally driven, as we`re still on the periphery of the tropical
disturbance. Any activity this afternoon should dissipate near
sunset, but an uptick in coverage is expected late tonight through
Wednesday. The best chances for showers and storms continue to be
advertised across Central Texas where isolated rainfall totals
between 1-2" are expected. There is a 10% chance rainfall totals
will exceed 3" roughly near and south of a line from Goldthwaite
to Gatesville to Hearne. Any higher-end totals will result in
minor flood impacts across these areas as soils remain saturated
following our wet spring. Some locations, especially across North
Texas, will miss out on rain entirely.

Aside from the rain chances, another warm and breezy afternoon is
expected today with high temperatures in the upper 80s to low
90s. A few spots may see heat index values top 100 degrees.
Fortunately, we`ll get a brief break from the heat on Wednesday
as a result of the increased cloud cover and precipitation, with
high temperatures in the low to mid 80s.

Barnes

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
Update:
Rain bands associated with PTC One will continue to move from
southeast to west across the state on Wednesday night as the
remnants of the tropical depression/storm transition further
inland into Mexico. Overall, the forecast trends discussed below
remain on track, therefore no significant changes were made to the
previous forecast. The NBM has continued a downward trend in the
coverage of precipitation after sunrise on Thursday with
convection contracting closer to the main circulation. This is
likely to keep many areas rain-free after sunrise on Thursday
apart from portions of Central Texas and areas near/west of US-281
in North Texas.

12

Previous Discussion:
/Wednesday Night Onward/

A tropical disturbance will continue moving west across South
Texas and northern Mexico Wednesday night and Thursday. Scattered
showers and the occasional thunderstorms will shift west of the
I-35 corridor, eventually exiting to our west during the overnight
hours. A second batch of precipitation may develop across Central
Texas during the day Thursday along a lingering moist axis, which
will warrant some chance to slight chance POPs south of the I-20
corridor.

All showers and storms should come to an end Thursday night as a
mid level ridge quickly redevelops overhead. The result will be a
return to hot, humid, and rain-free weather Friday through the
weekend. High temperatures in the mid to upper 90s with dewpoints
in the lower 70s will have conditions pushing Heat Advisory
criteria either Sunday or Monday (heat index 105 or greater). The
next opportunity for rain will be associated with either another
tropical system entering from the south, a weak front from the
north, or both around the middle part of next week.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1217 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024/
/18Z TAFs/

Lingering MVFR ceilings are slowly lifting to VFR, with the Cu
field expected to gradually scatter out through the afternoon. A
few showers and storms are expected to develop across Central
Texas this afternoon, but coverage will be too isolated to
warrant a mention in the KACT TAF at this time. Showers and storms
will increase in coverage across Central Texas late tonight,
spreading north throughout the day Wednesday. The best potential
for showers/storms at any of the terminals will likely be tomorrow
afternoon. Pinpointing a time for D10 is challenging since
coverage will be isolated to widely scattered, so we`ll forgo any
mention of VCSH for now. For KACT, showers and storms could begin
tomorrow morning, but the best potential will be outside of the
current TAF period during the afternoon.

Otherwise, gusty southeast winds will continue this afternoon,
but the strong gusts should subside near sunset. East to southeast
winds near 10-15 knots are expected tonight through the remainder
of the period.

Barnes

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    74  87  76  92  75 /   0  20  20  10   0
Waco                74  83  74  89  73 /   5  40  30  20   5
Paris               70  85  73  91  71 /   5  10   5   5   0
Denton              73  87  73  91  72 /   0  20  10  10   0
McKinney            73  86  73  91  73 /   5  20  10   5   0
Dallas              75  87  75  93  75 /   5  20  20  10   0
Terrell             73  85  74  92  72 /   5  20  10   5   0
Corsicana           73  84  76  92  75 /   5  30  20   5   0
Temple              73  81  73  89  73 /   5  50  40  20  10
Mineral Wells       72  86  73  89  72 /   0  20  20  20   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$