Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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230 FXUS64 KFWD 221004 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 504 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 ...New Aviation, Short Term... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ Update: Our current thinking with regards to the short term portion of the forecast has not changed with heat being the primary weather concern. We will make some minor hourly grid adjustments to temperature, dew point, and sky cover to match current observations. No other changes are needed at this time. 79 Previous Discussion: /Overnight through Saturday night/ Isolated showers that formed on the southern periphery of a ridge aloft have dissipated with the loss of surface heating. Diurnally driven Cu have also dissipated, leaving a mostly clear sky across the region. After a seasonably hot and humid day with highs in the lower and middle 90s, temperatures will cool steadily overnight, reaching the lower and middle 70s by sunrise Saturday. Temperatures will be slightly warmer on Saturday (highs generally in the middle 90s) with building heights and plenty of sun. However, moisture will remain below 700 mb, allowing daytime Cu to develop once again. It is not out of the realm of possibility that a few sprinkles could reach the ground across a few of our Central Texas counties Saturday afternoon, but subsidence should be too strong for these brief showers to produce measurable rainfall. Daytime Cu will dissipate Saturday evening and southerly winds will become light, allowing a steady cool down. Overnight lows will be mainly in the lower and middle 70s, but a few spots across the urban heat island of the metroplex may not fall below 78 degrees. 79 && .LONG TERM... /Issued 259 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024/ /Sunday Onward/ The main story heading into the upcoming workweek will be the onset of oppressive summer heat. The upper ridge axis will become centered directly overhead by the end of this weekend, and daily high temperatures will steadily trend warmer into the upper 90s while triple-digit readings begin to become more common. Mixing out of dewpoints into the 60s early in the week will hold heat index values largely in the 100-108 degree range, but higher dewpoints in the low to mid 70s arriving towards the midweek period could push heat index values over 110 at times. Prolonged heat headlines appear likely through the extended forecast period. The ridge will become anchored across the Desert Southwest by Wednesday, placing much of the Southern and Central Plains within northerly flow aloft. This pattern can allow weak fronts to push farther southward than normal by summertime standards, and resultant convection can sometimes become a factor for North Texas as steering flow sends convection from these boundaries southward through the Plains. As a result, at least some low thunderstorm chances may exist on Wednesday or Thursday. Unless next week`s heat wave is interrupted by such convection or at least some remnant cloud cover, oppressive heat and humidity will likely continue into the late week period. -Stalley && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /12Z TAFs/ ...VFR with south flow... Patchy stratus has developed across the Texas Hill Country early this morning but weak southerly flow and daytime mixing should keep it well south of the TAF sites. We do expect scattered Cu to develop shortly after sunrise along with some passing high clouds. The Cu will dissipate around sunset but a few high clouds will remain. The wind will stay southerly at speeds generally less than 12 knots. 79 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 96 78 98 79 99 / 0 0 0 0 0 Waco 93 74 95 76 97 / 0 0 0 0 0 Paris 94 75 97 75 97 / 0 0 0 0 0 Denton 96 75 99 76 100 / 0 0 0 0 0 McKinney 96 76 98 77 99 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dallas 96 78 99 78 100 / 0 0 0 0 0 Terrell 94 74 96 75 97 / 0 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 94 75 97 78 97 / 0 0 0 0 0 Temple 94 72 95 75 97 / 0 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 95 73 98 75 99 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$